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Market returns were mixed in June as investors navigated a complex environment combining de-escalation in the Middle East with uncertainty over the future of AI spending. Tensions between the US and Iran eased following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which put a pause on the conflict and helped reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While a positive development, markets responded cautiously, with the flow of oil tankers remining significantly below pre-war norms…

Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage’s decision to resign and hold a by-election for his Clacton-on-Sea seat sent UK gilt yields up earlier in the week. With all major parties refusing to take part, Farage will now face Count Binface, members of Monster Raving Loony Party and the Human Fox on 13 August 2026. If re-elected, the Commons Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, Daniel Greenberg, will finish his investigation into Farage’s undisclosed £5mn “gift” from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harbone. If found guilty of breaking parliamentary rules by not disclosing the gift, Clacton will face another by election shortly after.

UK gilt yields fell on Friday after Andy Burnham’s nomination to be the Labour party leader and next PM, was backed by 322 out of 403 labour MPs…

In a turbulent week, worries about the US war in Iran took a backseat with the future of AI in the spotlight again.

Tuesday’s tech sell off was sparked by concerns about valuations (seven tech companies currently make up 30% of the US’s main index’s value), high capital expenditure plans, the prospect of higher US interest rates, and some profit taking. SpaceX’s announcement that it’s looking to raise $20bn in a bond sale restarted the conversation around the massive cost of AI spending. The downturn spread across to Asia sending South Korea’s main index down 9.99%, its biggest drop in three months.

In a turbulent week, worries about the US war in Iran took a backseat with the future of AI in the spotlight again.

Tuesday’s tech sell off was sparked by concerns about valuations (seven tech companies currently make up 30% of the US’s main index’s value), high capital expenditure plans, the prospect of higher US interest rates, and some profit taking. SpaceX’s announcement that it’s looking to raise $20bn in a bond sale restarted the conversation around the massive cost of AI spending. The downturn spread across to Asia sending South Korea’s main index down 9.99%, its biggest drop in three months.

So far, the twenty-twenties has been characterised by a series of demand and supply shocks that have exposed the fragility of the old global order. The Covid pandemic, “Liberation Day” and conflicts like the Russia–Ukraine war and US-Israeli strikes on Iran have all had a major impact on trade and economic norms. Many countries are increasingly prioritising self-interest over multilateral coordination, with a growing group of “middle powers” looking to work together to face this new political environment. The result is a global economy that is becoming divided along more segmented strategic lines…

As I write this morning, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has just announced his resignation. Following Andy Burnham’s resounding victory in the Makerfield by-election last week, he is expected to take over the reins. This week we’re likely to find out whether he’ll have to fight a full leadership contest or be elected PM without challenge. Potential contender, Wes Streeting has already come out and backed Burnham, simplifying Burnham’s path to number 10.

In the weeks and months ahead, investors will be keeping a keen eye on who Burnham appoints as Chancellor, any plans to deviate from the current fiscal limits, and whether he can repeat his Manchester growth story on a national level…