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Oil prices fell on Monday after President Trump postponed his threaten attack on Iranian power plants. Similar to what we saw during “liberation day” tariff U-turns last year, there was a flurry of unusual activity on oil and S&P futures before Trump announced the postponement. The number of bets on crude and brent oil contracts effectively increased threefold exactly ten minutes before the announcement sparking fresh speculation about insider trading…

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) all voted to keep interest rates unchanged last week.

Fed board members now expect US inflation to reach 2.7% by the end of the year, up from December’s prediction of 2.4%. Regarding the impact of the war in Iran, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, cautioned “We just don’t know what the effects” will be…

The ongoing situation in Iran has created a new wave of uncertainty for investors. One notable feature of the conflict has been the sheer volume of information being released, which has the potential to shift markets in the short term. History suggests that trying to time markets during periods of volatility is rarely a reliable strategy…

Various attempts to try and counter rising oil prices helped keep the price of oil below $100 a barrel in the early stages of last week. On Monday, South Korea and Thailand said they would set limits on fuel prices. All 32 members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. Despite this being more than double…

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Markets contended with several major macroeconomic events over the month. The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump was not authorised to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Powers Act (or IEEPA). In response, Trump complied with the ruling however pivoted to alternative measures, issuing a 10% tariff on all countries based on another statute (Section 122 of the Trades Act of 1974). Last week, Trade Secretary, Scott Bessent announced that the 10% tariff will be increased to 15% imminently.

Tariff tribulations were overshadowed at the end of the month when the US and Israel launched a series of airstrikes and military operations in Iran…