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The Japanese Cabinet Office is due to release Japan’s Q1 GDP data on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting to see a moderate rise largely thanks to AI sector driven growth. The impact of the energy shock caused by the war in Iran is more likely to be visible in Japan’s inflation numbers when published on Friday. Higher energy costs are expected to push up the overall inflation number although energy subsidies and the release of oil reserves should mean the impact is less significant than in other parts of Asia…

The conflict in Iran continued to dominate global financial markets in April. Right after Easter, President Trump threatened “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz couldn’t be reached. Thankfully he backed down and started the ceasefire that is still going on today, kicking off a reasonable month for markets…

All eyes continue to be on the conflict in Iran after President Trump called Iran’s reply to his proposed peace plan “totally unacceptable”. Earlier on last week Trump predicted that the war in Iran will be “over quickly” and said that most people understand his goal of ending Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium must be “taken out” before the war against Iran can be considered over. Trump had proposed that Iran permit shipping to pass through Hormuz while Washington ends its blockade of Iranian ports, with month-long nuclear talks to follow. Oil rose again on Monday following Trump’s social media posts.

All eyes will be on the conflict in Iran after tensions escalated during the Bank Holiday weekend. Yesterday, President Trump announced operation “Project Freedom” in an attempt to help the hundreds of ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned Iran’s forces they would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attacked US ships. Countering, Iran threatened to strike any US navy ship approaching the Strait and claimed to have struck a US frigate with missiles. This weekend, the UAE accused Iran of firing missiles into the region for the first time since the ceasefire. The ceasefire is now in its fourth week. American military have had time to restock and refuel, and if a deal can’t be reached the situation could be set to escalate…

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will all hold meetings this week to make their latest decisions on interest rates. Across the board, no rate changes are widely expected. However, analysts and investors will have a firm eye on the statements and guidance to gauge the likelihood of rate changes later in the year and get a better grasp of the economic fallout from the conflict in Iran.

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting could be the last presided over by Jerome Powell…

After a prolonged period in which strong equity returns largely masked underlying risks, conditions have become more unsettled in recent years. Trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty are now refocusing attention on volatility, with advisers once again having frequent conversations with clients about market shocks, sequencing risk (selling investments to support income payments) and investing during falling markets…