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All eyes will be on the conflict in Iran after tensions escalated during the Bank Holiday weekend. Yesterday, President Trump announced operation “Project Freedom” in an attempt to help the hundreds of ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned Iran’s forces they would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attacked US ships. Countering, Iran threatened to strike any US navy ship approaching the Strait and claimed to have struck a US frigate with missiles. This weekend, the UAE accused Iran of firing missiles into the region for the first time since the ceasefire. The ceasefire is now in its fourth week. American military have had time to restock and refuel, and if a deal can’t be reached the situation could be set to escalate…

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will all hold meetings this week to make their latest decisions on interest rates. Across the board, no rate changes are widely expected. However, analysts and investors will have a firm eye on the statements and guidance to gauge the likelihood of rate changes later in the year and get a better grasp of the economic fallout from the conflict in Iran.

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting could be the last presided over by Jerome Powell…

After a prolonged period in which strong equity returns largely masked underlying risks, conditions have become more unsettled in recent years. Trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty are now refocusing attention on volatility, with advisers once again having frequent conversations with clients about market shocks, sequencing risk (selling investments to support income payments) and investing during falling markets…

Broadly speaking, markets across the globe had a positive week following several optimistic updates about an end to the conflict in Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, President Trump said the war was “close to over” and that during a call with President Xi, China was very happy that he was “permanently opening” the strait.

However, after being briefly reopened on Friday, the shipping route was shut again Saturday evening…

Over the past month, the escalation of the Middle East conflict has dominated global financial markets. On the last day of February, the US, in coordination with Israel, launched a series of airstrikes and military operations targeting Iranian government and military facilities, including the assassination of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s response was swift and included military retaliation across the region against Israel and several other Gulf states. As of the time of writing, there has not been a conclusive resolution to the conflict, and this has resulted in major disruptions to shipping through the Gulf and a sharp increase in energy prices…

When markets reopened after Easter, the conflict in Iran was inevitably top of the agenda. On Tuesday, President Trump threatened “A whole civilisation will die tonight” if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz couldn’t be reached by his 8pm deadline. Thankfully, Trump backed down and agreed to a two-week ceasefire…