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In fast‑moving financial markets, having a disciplined approach to managing risk is essential. Here at Copia we use a range of quantitative and qualitative tools to help guide portfolio decisions. One of the most important of these is our Risk Barometer; a structured, data‑driven indicator designed to help us assess fundamental market conditions and adjust equity exposure accordingly…

Last Monday, President Trump sent US markets down after he threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power stations and water plants if they didn’t “shortly” agree to peace terms. Optimism that Trump was trying to wind down the war gave markets a lift on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the S&P 500 ultimately soaring 6% and ending a five-week losing streak. Trump’s prime time address on Wednesday evening failed to reassure investors and hit markets when they opened again on Thursday. However, by the close of play, US indexes recovered and finished just below Wednesday’s peak as we went into the Easter weekend.

Six weeks into the war, as last week demonstrates, the conflict and Trump’s rhetoric continue to mould global markets…

Oil prices fell on Monday after President Trump postponed his threaten attack on Iranian power plants. Similar to what we saw during “liberation day” tariff U-turns last year, there was a flurry of unusual activity on oil and S&P futures before Trump announced the postponement. The number of bets on crude and brent oil contracts effectively increased threefold exactly ten minutes before the announcement sparking fresh speculation about insider trading…

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) all voted to keep interest rates unchanged last week.

Fed board members now expect US inflation to reach 2.7% by the end of the year, up from December’s prediction of 2.4%. Regarding the impact of the war in Iran, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, cautioned “We just don’t know what the effects” will be…

The ongoing situation in Iran has created a new wave of uncertainty for investors. One notable feature of the conflict has been the sheer volume of information being released, which has the potential to shift markets in the short term. History suggests that trying to time markets during periods of volatility is rarely a reliable strategy…

Various attempts to try and counter rising oil prices helped keep the price of oil below $100 a barrel in the early stages of last week. On Monday, South Korea and Thailand said they would set limits on fuel prices. All 32 members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. Despite this being more than double…