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Global markets continued to rally in October. They extended gains over the three-month period despite some potential obstacles including the first US government shutdown since December 2018, uncertainties over inflation and tariffs, and worries about an AI stock bubble. Global equities posted gains of 5.5% over the month with strong results across both developed and emerging markets.
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US markets closed nearly 2% down for the week after concerns over valuations of AI & Mag 7 stocks came to a head. Over $500bn was wiped off the value of AI chipmakers, with the bosses of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley speaking of fears about an imminent correction. The sustained US Government shutdown, nearing the record for the longest ever, added to these pains, with increased instability and uncertainty in US markets. UK and European markets also suffered from the sell-off, with UK markets perhaps struggling with the uncertainty of the upcoming budget.
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Recently there’s been a lot of commentary on a potential bubble in AI. Some suggest challenges lie ahead for those exposed to US equity, where elevated valuations are concentrated in AI-related stocks. Others say that investing is worthwhile to fuel innovation in a revolutionary technology. While discussions around a bubble are important, one thing that’s missing is a reminder about investing basics when it comes to assessing US exposure. Several factors suggest being underweight in the US is sensible: the nature of current valuations, underlying economic conditions and other metrics that indicate the AI narrative is largely driven by speculation…
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