Weekly Espresso

The price of brent crude oil surpassed $90 a barrel again after another week of fighting in the Middle East. Last night, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said “not a single drop” of oil or gas will get through the Strait of Hormuz if US attacks continue.

Vessels passing through the Strait dropped to just 13 last Wednesday and maritime traffic appears near another standstill…

Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage’s decision to resign and hold a by-election for his Clacton-on-Sea seat sent UK gilt yields up earlier in the week. With all major parties refusing to take part, Farage will now face Count Binface, members of Monster Raving Loony Party and the Human Fox on 13 August 2026. If re-elected, the Commons Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, Daniel Greenberg, will finish his investigation into Farage’s undisclosed £5mn “gift” from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harbone. If found guilty of breaking parliamentary rules by not disclosing the gift, Clacton will face another by election shortly after.

UK gilt yields fell on Friday after Andy Burnham’s nomination to be the Labour party leader and next PM, was backed by 322 out of 403 labour MPs…

In a turbulent week, worries about the US war in Iran took a backseat with the future of AI in the spotlight again.

Tuesday’s tech sell off was sparked by concerns about valuations (seven tech companies currently make up 30% of the US’s main index’s value), high capital expenditure plans, the prospect of higher US interest rates, and some profit taking. SpaceX’s announcement that it’s looking to raise $20bn in a bond sale restarted the conversation around the massive cost of AI spending. The downturn spread across to Asia sending South Korea’s main index down 9.99%, its biggest drop in three months.

In a turbulent week, worries about the US war in Iran took a backseat with the future of AI in the spotlight again.

Tuesday’s tech sell off was sparked by concerns about valuations (seven tech companies currently make up 30% of the US’s main index’s value), high capital expenditure plans, the prospect of higher US interest rates, and some profit taking. SpaceX’s announcement that it’s looking to raise $20bn in a bond sale restarted the conversation around the massive cost of AI spending. The downturn spread across to Asia sending South Korea’s main index down 9.99%, its biggest drop in three months.

As I write this morning, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has just announced his resignation. Following Andy Burnham’s resounding victory in the Makerfield by-election last week, he is expected to take over the reins. This week we’re likely to find out whether he’ll have to fight a full leadership contest or be elected PM without challenge. Potential contender, Wes Streeting has already come out and backed Burnham, simplifying Burnham’s path to number 10.

In the weeks and months ahead, investors will be keeping a keen eye on who Burnham appoints as Chancellor, any plans to deviate from the current fiscal limits, and whether he can repeat his Manchester growth story on a national level…

Investors drew a collective sigh of relief last night after Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a deal between the US and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East. Sharif said both sides had agreed to “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon”.

However, the situation in Lebanon could jeopardise the signing of the deal. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, says the IDF plans to stay in Lebanon “without time limits”, whereas Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi has said today that a “complete halt” to Israeli attacks in Lebanon is required. Under the deal…