Weekly Espresso

The S&P closed at a record high of 6,173 on Friday, taking its jump since the fall on “Liberation Day” to around 24%. The Nasdaq also set an all-time high.

The good week was influenced by the easing of tensions with Iran, a trade deal with China, and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant that suggested the administration could push back its 9 July tariff deadline, saying in an interview on Fox that the US “could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day [1 September 2025].”

Markets moved in tandem to the situation in the Middle East throughout the week, with some additional relief coming Friday morning following Trump’s claim he needed two weeks to decide whether to involve the US military in Iran. However, this sentiment was scuppered less than two days later after the Americans attacked three Iranian nuclear sites.

Trump said the operation was a “spectacular success” and warned that if Iran did not abandon its nuclear programme, he would launch more attacks that were “far worse and a lot easier.”

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said overall government department spending will increase by 2.3% a year in real terms.

Health is arguably the biggest winner of this Spending Review. The department will receive almost £30bn extra a year towards it budget. £10bn of that has been earmarked for technology and digital transformation. The effective 3% rise is much lower than the funding increases during the last time Labour were in power and there are question marks over whether it’s enough to tackle backlogs and cover pay rises for doctors and nurses…

The entirely predictable bust-up between the world’s most powerful man and the richest, finally happened in very public fashion on Thursday. Upset about Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax and spending bill and the $2.4tn it would add to US debt, Musk called for Trump to be impeached, claimed the Epstein files weren’t being released because Trump features in them, and suggested starting a new political party “that actually represents the 80% in the middle”.

Trump responded by threatening to tear up Musk’s US government contracts…

On Wednesday, the New York based US Court of International trade ruled that Trump did not have the authority to impose the vast majority of his global tariffs. Major trade changes, like tariffs, normally need congressional approval but so far Trump has been bypassing that by invoking the International Emergency Powers Act of 1977. The bipartisan three-judge panel ruled that the act did not give him the power to impose his import taxes. However, by Thursday evening, a federal court put a temporary hold on the ruling allowing the tariffs to remain in place for now…

Last week kicked off with the UK and the EU reaching a new agreement on post-Brexit relations. The deal will add an estimated extra £9bn to the UK economy.

According to Nick Thomas-Symonds, the UK’s chief negotiator. it marks “a new chapter in our relationship with the EU.” The major parts of the deal include: