Weekly Espresso

Another AI related stock sell-off effected most major indexes last week with the S&P, FTSE, Nikkei and Shanghai Stock Exchange all finishing lower.

The head of Alphabet, Sundar Pichai, added to worries about the growth of AI investment. During an interview with the BBC on Tuesday saying there is some “irrationality” in the AI boom, and that, if the bubble bursts, “no company is going to be immune, including us”.

The next day, the world’s largest company, Nvidia, released their long-awaited earnings report for Q3. Markets initially reacted positively to the press release headlines…

On Monday morning, markets woke up to the news that seven democrats and one independent had voted to back the latest Republican deal to reopen the US government and end the longest ever US shutdown.

Trump formally signed a bill to end the shutdown on Wednesday. Market reaction was mixed as US equities traded lower over concerns about how long it will take for things to return to normal…

US markets closed nearly 2% down for the week after concerns over valuations of AI & Mag 7 stocks came to a head. Over $500bn was wiped off the value of AI chipmakers, with the bosses of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley speaking of fears about an imminent correction. The sustained US Government shutdown, nearing the record for the longest ever, added to these pains, with increased instability and uncertainty in US markets. UK and European markets also suffered from the sell-off, with UK markets perhaps struggling with the uncertainty of the upcoming budget.

During Trump’s tour of Asia, Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to suspend China’s rare earth export controls in return for the US cutting the “fentanyl tariff” from 20% to 10%. China have also committed to buying a “massive” amount of American farm products including soybeans.

Trump rated the talks as a “12 on a scale of 1 to 10” but nothing has been signed yet…

The 64-year-old won a clear majority on Tuesday – 237 votes in the powerful Lower House and another 125 in the Upper House – as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Her economic views align closely with those of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who promoted a reflationary policy framework known as “Abenomics.” She has long called for aggressive government spending to boost Japan’s economic growth rate and criticized the Bank of Japan for tightening monetary policy.

On Tuesday, the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey joined the growing number of finance leaders worried about the AI boom and the inflated value of tech companies. In his letter to other G20 finance ministers and bank governors he said, “While most jurisdictions have seen a rebound in financial markets in recent months, the resulting asset valuations could now be at odds with the uncertain economic and geopolitical outlook, leaving markets susceptible to a disorderly adjustment.”

The next day, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) echoed Bailey’s comments when it released its latest World Economic Outlook report…