Economic Commentary

The past 12 months have been a rollercoaster for investors, dominated by inflationary pressures, market volatility and political uncertainty. Despite the headwinds, global markets have delivered positive returns. As we move into 2026, key questions remain: will growth hold, is inflation still a risk, and how will markets respond to the US midterms? Richard Warne, Senior Portfolio Manager at Copia, explores the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House was always likely to create uncertainty. His re-election alongside a host of economic and geopolitical factors contributed to a changeable trading environment.

Nevertheless, despite pockets of volatility, most major asset classes have performed well. For us, it’s been a year where narrative-driven investing, prudent protection and thoughtful diversification have all played a role in delivering strong performances across our portfolio range…

Our Short-Dated Bond Portfolio (SDBP) has just passed its three-year anniversary. Looking back on performance, the team and I are very proud that it’s delivered on our core objective to provide steady and better-than-cash returns with low levels of risk and volatility…

In Q3 we saw regional markets put in more of the strong performance. A quick glance at market Q3 performances: MSCI Emerging Markets is up around 12.5%, Asia (ex. Japan) up over 12.5%, Japan (TSE TOPIX) above 10%. The US had a strong quarter, though on a year-to-date basis is languishing behind all major developed markets.

For the last few years, the US and big tech have been the only games in town but no longer…

Recently there’s been a lot of commentary on a potential bubble in AI. Some suggest challenges lie ahead for those exposed to US equity, where elevated valuations are concentrated in AI-related stocks. Others say that investing is worthwhile to fuel innovation in a revolutionary technology. While discussions around a bubble are important, one thing that’s missing is a reminder about investing basics when it comes to assessing US exposure. Several factors suggest being underweight in the US is sensible: the nature of current valuations, underlying economic conditions and other metrics that indicate the AI narrative is largely driven by speculation…

The recent rise in 30-year gilt yields has received a lot of interest. With this long-dated government debt reaching a 27-year high at 5.7% (3rd September 2025), investors are naturally questioning the implications for the UK. It could heavily influence how Rachel Reeves manoeuvres within the limited fiscal headroom available in her (more winter than) Autumn Budget.

Yet despite these pressures, there are encouraging signs for the UK…