Economic Commentary

At the moment, it feels like every morning brings another shock, more alarming headlines and something else to worry about. Last year, the turmoil of Liberation Day didn’t arrive until April. This year, we’re barely through January and chaos already seems to reign. Markets are being pulled in multiple directions by short-term events but, if you strip away the noise, a small number of themes continue to shape the investment landscape. AI, energy and inflation are prime examples.

The year started not with a whimper, but with a bang. On 3 January, Donald Trump ordered and successfully carried out a military strike in Venezuela, resulting in the ‘extraction’ of its President, Nicolás Maduro. The action has many layers and, while it’s too early to gauge the full impact on markets, the initial reaction has been muted…

The past 12 months have been a rollercoaster for investors, dominated by inflationary pressures, market volatility and political uncertainty. Despite the headwinds, global markets have delivered positive returns. As we move into 2026, key questions remain: will growth hold, is inflation still a risk, and how will markets respond to the US midterms? Richard Warne, Senior Portfolio Manager at Copia, explores the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House was always likely to create uncertainty. His re-election alongside a host of economic and geopolitical factors contributed to a changeable trading environment.

Nevertheless, despite pockets of volatility, most major asset classes have performed well. For us, it’s been a year where narrative-driven investing, prudent protection and thoughtful diversification have all played a role in delivering strong performances across our portfolio range…

Our Short-Dated Bond Portfolio (SDBP) has just passed its three-year anniversary. Looking back on performance, the team and I are very proud that it’s delivered on our core objective to provide steady and better-than-cash returns with low levels of risk and volatility…

In Q3 we saw regional markets put in more of the strong performance. A quick glance at market Q3 performances: MSCI Emerging Markets is up around 12.5%, Asia (ex. Japan) up over 12.5%, Japan (TSE TOPIX) above 10%. The US had a strong quarter, though on a year-to-date basis is languishing behind all major developed markets.

For the last few years, the US and big tech have been the only games in town but no longer…