Having just passed her seven year anniversary with Copia, we asked our Head of Operations, Marina Contato to take some time out of her busy day to reflect on her time with us.

Going back seven years – how did you start working at Copia? What were you doing before?

In 2016, I moved to London after my husband was transferred from his job in Brazil to the office here. Once we settled in, I spent some time studying English and getting used to life in a new country, which was an adventure on its own.

After that, I resumed my career in financial services, joining the South Korean firm Mirae Asset Global Investments, where I was responsible for trade settlement and reconciliations. Then, in April 2019, I joined Copia. 

What was Copia like when you started and how has the business changed?

Copia has changed a lot over the last seven years. When I first joined, the team was made up of just five people. As the business grew and we welcomed more clients each year, the team naturally expanded as well. Over time, we hired more portfolio managers and analysts and built a dedicated Copia Sales team.

It’s been fantastic to see the company grow organically, improve the service we provide to existing clients, attract new ones, and expand our product range along the way.

What does your typical day look like now?

When I joined Copia, I started on the investment side of the business, where my days followed a more structured routine. However, since moving into Operations in 2022, I can honestly say there is no such thing as a “typical day”.

Each day is different and usually involves a mix of overseeing operational processes, managing our platforms and technology providers, supporting the Investment and Compliance teams, and leading internal operational projects. It definitely keeps things interesting!

What aspect of your time here are you most proud of?

I believe that being able to contribute to Copia’s overall growth is what makes me most proud. Being part of this journey, from the early days to where we are now, has been incredibly rewarding.

If you weren’t working for Copia would do you think you’d be doing instead?

Travelling around the world and being a travel blogger sounds like a pretty good alternative career to me!

Have you got any tips for people who’ve just started working in the financial services sector?

Be curious and always be willing to learn. Invest in your communication skills, build your network, and – most importantly – be a nice person to everyone. It really does make a difference!

Away from work, what’s your ethos when it comes to money and looking after your finances?

I’ve always believed that managing money is ultimately about balance – planning for the future while still enjoying the present. For me, it’s less about chasing short‑term gains and more about being consistent and disciplined.

I try to keep things simple: spend consciously, save regularly, and invest with a long‑term mindset. It’s about staying calm through market ups and downs and focusing on the bigger picture rather than short‑term noise.

What’s worth spending more money on?

I would say experiences, especially travel. Travel gives you a different perspective, helps you adapt to new situations, and creates memories that last much longer than material purchases.

And I also believe it’s worth spending a bit more on things that genuinely improve your daily life, whether that’s comfort, quality, or something that saves you time.

After a prolonged period in which strong equity returns largely masked underlying risks, conditions have become more unsettled in recent years. Conflicts, trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty are refocusing attention on volatility, with advisers once again having frequent conversations with clients about market shocks, sequencing risk (selling investments to support income payments) and investing during falling markets.

And the situation shows little sign of improving. Valuations remain elevated in some parts of global equity markets and the current conflict in Iran has only made the economic outlook more uncertain. Wesleyan adviser research finds that 92% [1]expect investment markets will be more volatile in 2026, driven by uncertainty over the global economy and the rate of UK inflation as well as ongoing global conflicts and concerns about technology valuations, including AI companies.

Why now?

Of course, volatility isn’t a new problem for investors. However, the difference this time is that its resurfacing coincides with the Government encouraging broader retail participation in markets. More than four in five advisers (82%) believe this push to build a stronger retail investment culture will make client concerns around market volatility a bigger issue.

The majority of respondents (84%) believe the performance of their clients’ investments is under threat due to volatility next year, suggesting this new wave of less experienced investors will encounter market stress early in their investment journey. Policy momentum is driving greater participation in markets just as advisers expect conditions to become more unstable. Almost half of advisers (45%) expect between 20% and 40% of their clients to be put off investing in growth assets such as equities, or even dependable assets such as bonds and property.

Portfolio construction in volatile conditions

Wesleyan’s research highlights a range of strategies firms are using to help their clients navigate volatility. While six in ten (60%) plan to issue communications discussing what’s driving market movements, the potential outlook and what it may mean for clients’ financial goals, a sizeable group are also considering investment changes. Nearly half (48%) are seeking further diversification opportunities, such as commodities or private equity, and the same proportion (48%) said they will start or increase investments in a ‘smoothed’ fund.

Smoothed with-profits funds aim to provide a degree of downside protection during periods of market stress. They hold back some returns in stronger equity markets to help support returns when markets fall, reducing the impact of short-term volatility. This can offer greater stability for clients and help them avoid making reactive decisions during periods of market stress.

How Copia Select Smoothed is different

Copia Select Smoothed portfolios leverage the benefits of with-profits funds alongside complementary assets to give advisers a practical solution for clients who want to stay invested but are concerned about volatility.

Each risk-rated portfolio includes a 30% allocation to Wesleyan’s smoothed With Profits Fund, with the remaining 70% invested across a diversified mix of assets selected and overseen by Copia’s expert investment team.

This structure allows advisers to combine the stability created by the on-platform fund’s smoothing mechanism with the long-term growth potential of an actively managed multi-asset portfolio, while maintaining liquidity and transparency.

The approach can help mitigate sequencing risk, helping clients drawing an income or planning to do so in the near future. As the with-profits part of the portfolio reserves gains in strong markets to support payouts in weak years, investors are less likely to be forced to sell assets during market downturns to generate normal income. It can also be attractive to more cautious investors seeking multi-asset exposure with lower volatility than a traditional managed portfolio.

To maintain the potential for long-term growth, periods of heightened volatility require careful portfolio construction rather than wholesale withdrawal from equities and bonds. With advisers believing volatility will remain elevated at a time when more retail investors are expected to enter the market, solutions that help clients remain invested without exposing them fully to short-term market swings may become increasingly relevant. Blending smoothing with active portfolio management provides a pragmatic way for advisers to manage volatility while maintaining long-term investment discipline.

This article is intended for regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. Remember, the value of investments will fluctuate, and capital is at risk.

^[1] 2026 predicted to be a year of market volatility, Wesleyan, 29 January 2026

Want to find out more?

Watch our Senior Portfolio Manager, Pete Wasko discuss managing the Smoothed portfolios. 

If you think our Smoothed portfolios might be suitable for some of your clients, call us on 020 4599 6475 or get in touch online. 

In fast‑moving financial markets, having a disciplined approach to managing risk is essential. Here at Copia we use a range of quantitative and qualitative tools to help guide portfolio decisions. One of the most important of these is our Risk Barometer; a structured, data‑driven indicator designed to help us assess fundamental market conditions and adjust equity exposure accordingly.

The Risk Barometer is not a black‑box model, nor does it replace the experience and judgement of our portfolio managers. Instead, it provides an easy‑to‑interpret score that helps inform how much equity risk we take on relative to each client’s Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). Its core purpose is simple: help protect portfolios from more significant losses during periods of market stress, while allowing us to maintain appropriate levels of risk when conditions are supportive.

A Clear Pulse Check on Market Conditions

The Risk Barometer produces a score between –1% and +1%. Although the output is easy to follow, it is built from a thoughtful assessment of global market behaviour. The tool looks across three major areas, namely equities, sovereign debt, and credit, to capture a broad picture of financial conditions.

The largest input comes from the equity component, driving 60% of the reading, which analyses a diversified universe of global exchange‑traded funds. By looking at both long and short‑term market trends, it helps us understand whether equities are broadly gaining momentum or showing signs of strain.

Sovereign debt markets, making up 20% of the score, tell us something about the economic environment. When government bond yield curves invert, meaning shorter‑term yields rise above longer‑term ones, it has historically pointed to slower economic growth ahead.

The final component, credit markets, offer insight into corporate health. Rising credit default swap spreads often reflect rising concern about company balance sheets, and therefore greater overall financial stress.

Bringing these components together gives us a well‑rounded perspective on market dynamics that is grounded in observable data rather than subjective interpretation.

From Signal to Action: What the Score Means for Portfolios

While the Risk Barometer does not dictate specific trades, it helps determine the appropriate level of equity exposure at different points in the market cycle. To keep things intuitive, the score places market conditions into one of three zones:

• Green, where markets appear healthy and portfolios are positioned to maximise equity allocation within the ranges of the SAA.
• Amber, where caution is appropriate and equity exposure is shifted to a neutral allocation.
• Red, where conditions look more fragile and risks are scaled back to the bottom of their ranges.

This “brake and double‑brake” framework gives clients confidence that portfolios will not remain heavily exposed to equity market risk during times of rising fundamental financial stress. Conversely, it ensures we remain invested, and do not de‑risk too early when conditions are more supportive.

In the current geo-political and investment landscape where uncertainty is a constant, the Risk Barometer provides a clear, data‑driven assessment of underlying market conditions and helps us adjust equity exposure in a measured and transparent way. Its strength lies not in predicting the future, but in supporting better decisions, particularly when markets become difficult.

The Risk Barometer has become a fundamental part of how we deliver long‑term and risk‑aware investment outcomes. For clients, this means their portfolios are better prepared for turbulent periods, while still positioned to benefit when conditions improve.

This article is intended for regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. Remember, the value of investments will fluctuate, and capital is at risk.

Want to find out more?

Angus and the team update the Risk Barometer at the end of every month, you can check the latest reading here. 

If you’d like to find out more about how our tools and services can help you and your clients, send us a message or call 020 4599 6475.

The ongoing situation in Iran has created a new wave of uncertainty for investors. One notable feature of the conflict has been the sheer volume of information being released, which has the potential to shift markets in the short term. History suggests that trying to time markets during periods of volatility is rarely a reliable strategy.

In many ways, the situation in Iran represents a concentrated example of the current trading landscape in which volatility should be anticipated. We’ve seen increasingly frequent instances of instability over the past couple of years, largely driven by geopolitical friction.

Investing during conflicts and instability ultimately requires a well-considered strategy. Looking at both current developments and past events suggests that investors who focus on the broader economic and market picture are generally better positioned to navigate volatility.

The question marks around Iran

There are several aspects of the current conflict that differ from previous military action involving Iran. Rhetoric from the Trump administration has implied the possibility of an extended engagement. The situation remains highly uncertain, but market reaction so far has seen most major indices experience short-term declines.

The impact on oil is most closely watched, with the price of Brent crude moving above $100 for the first time in four years.[1] Iran has been targeting energy and civilian infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states and limited passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global supply route.

Disruption in this area has clear implications for energy prices and inflation. Markets have already reduced expectations for future interest rate cuts.[2] To date, economies most dependent on energy imports have experienced the greatest market stress.

It’s worth noting that we’re yet to reach the market declines seen during previous periods of volatility, including the Liberation Day sell-off. However, even if the current conflict is resolved relatively quickly, several potentially disruptive elements remain, including US tariff policy and concerns around valuations in parts of the technology sector. Investment strategies need to take account of these ongoing risks.  

Peter Wasko, Senior Portfolio  Manager

Our innovative retirement portfolios, Copia Select: Retirement Income (RI) and Copia Select: Retirement Income Plus (RI+) have passed their third anniversary. Launched on 28 February 2023, the portfolios are designed to address the needs of investors in decumulation and delivering sustainable income through different market conditions.

Designed for the realities of retirement

RI and RI+ were purpose-built to support advisers in delivering good outcomes to clients at or in retirement and meet the evolving regulatory expectations around delivering a sustainable income in retirement.

The portfolios recognise the need to take a distinct approach to investing for decumulation versus accumulation. They aim to maximise returns for investors while mitigating the specific risks associated with taking an income from investments.

The RI portfolios balance capital growth potential with the need for stability and income sustainability. The portfolios follow a similar quantitative methodology to our highly successful accumulation models, but a greater proportion is allocated to less traditional assets, such as hedge funds, infrastructure, real estate and commodities, which provide a diversified alternative exposure. These assets typically have lower correlation to equity and fixed income, helping to reduce the impact of unfavourable market conditions on investors taking an income.

The RI+ portfolios are designed to complement guaranteed income, delivered by Just Group’s Secure Lifetime Income, alongside a managed portfolio to increase the opportunity to outperform and provide greater certainty of outcome in retirement without increasing the overall investment risk. Using a guaranteed income asset alongside a managed portfolio helps optimise asset allocation in retirement income portfolios, while achieving more certainty over investment outcomes.

First published in WealthWise on 3 February 2026

First published in WealthDFM on 21 January 2026

The year started not with a whimper, but with a bang. On 3 January, Donald Trump ordered and successfully carried out a military strike in Venezuela, resulting in the ‘extraction’ of its President, Nicolás Maduro. The action has many layers and, while it’s too early to gauge the full impact on markets, the initial reaction has been muted.

However, the operation highlights several themes likely to shape markets and geopolitics in 2026 and beyond. It already signals factors investors will need to monitor closely, from implications for oil and US domestic politics, to the evolving ‘Donroe’ Doctrine.

The Oil Dimension

Trump has made no secret of his interest in Venezuela’s oil. While restoring democracy in Caracas and addressing concerns surrounding Maduro’s involvement in narcotics and weapons were cited as key reasons for the intervention, the prospect of US oil companies returning to the region has become a central narrative.

Initially, major oil companies saw rises in share prices. However, within a week, gains returned to just above pre-operation levels. Big oil has been largely absent in Venezuela since the industry was nationalised fifty years ago. Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chavez, forced any remaining international firms to cede control of operations to the state-owned PDVSA in 2007, sparking an array of legal battles and the departure of all firms except Chevron. The market quickly recognised that the infrastructure remains largely unchanged since the US left. There may be significant reserves but tapping them will require considerable investment.  

Production has fallen from a peak of three million barrels a day in 1998 to under one million today.[1] Rystad Energy estimates that $110bn in capital expenditure will be needed to produce two million barrels a day – twice what US oil giants invested globally in 2024.[2] In other words, progress is unlikely to be fast. ExxonMobil Chief Executive Darren Woods appeared to confirm this view, suggesting Venezuela is “uninvestable” without “significant changes”.[3]

The ‘Donroe’ Doctrine

Beyond oil, the operation also appears to benefit the Trump administration’s broader geopolitical ambitions, known as the ‘Donroe’ Doctrine. This is a reference to the Monroe Doctrine of the early 19^th century, reflecting a desire for US dominance across the Western Hemisphere.

The extraction of Maduro and seizure of Venezuelan oil assets have significantly weakened Cuba’s position, which relied on cheap Venezuelan oil. In addition, Cuba’s security service, tasked with protecting Maduro, was directly affected by the strike, with 32 Cuban guards reportedly killed during the operation.

The move also strengthens US leverage over China, Iran and Russia, all of which had invested in Venezuela and benefitted from diplomatic ties. Trump may see any increased pressure on China as particularly advantageous. China has been one of the few countries to resist US tariffs with relative success, by using their rare earth minerals as leverage, and any disruption to their oil imports could undermine that position.

Meanwhile, developments on Greenland, while still unfolding, suggest that US strategic considerations extend beyond Latin America. Venezuela appears to be part of a broader repositioning of America’s foreign policy priorities, which will be important to watch in the coming months.

Looking towards the midterms

Despite legal questions surrounding the Venezuela operation, some may view it as a shrewd manoeuvre for Trump’s domestic audience. Venezuela’s authoritarian regime displaced nearly eight million people[4] with many ending up in the US. A meaningful proportion of Venezuelan and Cuban voters in Florida, a critical swing state, appear to be largely supportive of the move.

These voters will be important in the midterm elections. Even if Congress challenges the operation’s legality or seeks to limit further actions, Trump may have gained favour with an influential section of the Hispanic electorate.

It’s also worth noting that, although Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is in poor condition, many US refineries are geared towards similar heavy crude. Any eventual increase in Venezuelan output could benefit US refineries, offering important political currency.

Keeping eyes open

The key takeaway from the 3 January intervention is that the situation remains fluid. Currently, markets appear relaxed, but confidence could easily be gained or shaken depending on how much uncertainty – the enemy of investing – enters the picture.

That said, most regional markets remain encouraging. Our Risk Barometer, which measures an array of relevant data points for market health, currently sits in the green.

Anyone hoping for a quiet start to the year will be disappointed. But if nothing else, recent events ensure that we will be keeping our eyes firmly on what comes next.

Richard Warne, Senior Portfolio Manager, Copia Capital

US midterms and market implications

With President Trump facing midterm elections in November next year, 2026 is likely to be marked by ongoing uncertainty. Measures to stimulate the economy ahead of the vote are already being discussed. These include fresh tax cuts and more deregulation, with parachute payments direct to households also under consideration. This noise will likely intensify as the year progresses.

Markets had previously priced in a series of interest rate cuts throughout 2026. However, stronger-than-expected growth figures and delayed inflation data have reduced the likelihood of a recession, and the probability of aggressive interest rate easing has declined. Potential friction may emerge if the White House pushes for rate cuts that aren’t supported by economic data. This could be a decisive challenge for the new Federal Reserve Chair who will succeed Jerome Powell in May 2026.

From a market perspective, US equities could benefit from stimulus measures, potentially supporting earnings growth and investor confidence, although this typically takes six to nine months to filter through to the real economy. Yet valuations are already trading well above long-term averages, even excluding big tech and AI names. It’s a valid question as to how much further upside stimulus can deliver.

Looking ahead, two scenarios seem most likely. The wave of AI-driven investment continues, with expected revenues eventually materialising to support sectors such as energy, chips, industrials and infrastructure. Or, valuations are tested, confidence wavers and capital potentially rotates towards more traditional areas like small-caps, cyclicals, and other less glamorously perceived parts of the market.

Global opportunities

Against this backdrop, opportunities outside the US, in regions and sectors with more modest valuations and ongoing structural change, are increasingly compelling. In Japan, corporate reforms are making small and mid-cap stocks increasingly attractive. Across emerging markets and Asia more broadly, economies already adjusting to dollar fluctuations offer real potential. Europe is entering a significant phase of infrastructure and energy-transition spending, and even modest deregulation could boost productivity. Closer to home, the UK remains uncertain, but valuations are appealing. Unlike the US, the UK economy is concentrated in traditional sectors like banks, mining and industrials. For investors that are brave enough there is particular valuation attractions in the small and mid-cap part of the market, and in stocks that are more UK domestically orientated.

Beyond equities, macro contradictions make fixed income challenging. Solid growth and persistent inflation, combined with rising energy and commodity demand, could reinforce price pressures. Long-duration bonds may remain vulnerable to policy shifts and volatility, whereas high-quality, short-duration credit may offer more stable, lower-risk income opportunities for clients without excessive interest-rate sensitivity.

Commodity markets also present interesting themes. Industrial metals could benefit from infrastructure investment and AI-related demand. Similarly, energy providers may gain from expanding data centres and AI infrastructure. While not a growth engine, gold continues to offer a hedge against a weaker dollar and policy uncertainty.

Finally, property offers selective opportunities for 2026, particularly in the UK. Ongoing merger and acquisition activity in the UK real estate markets suggests pockets of value for investors.

Selective optimism

The bottom line for 2026 is selective optimism. Policy stimulus, solid growth and pockets of value offer genuine opportunities, but they will not be evenly distributed. The most compelling theme for investors continues to be diversification: broad global equity exposure – with a focus outside the US – value and cyclical sectors, small- and mid-caps, disciplined fixed income allocations, and selective exposure to commodities or infrastructure.

Success in 2026 will depend less on picking a single winner and more on building a resilient, well-balanced portfolio that can adapt over the next 12 to 24 months. Volatility is likely to remain, but with a clear approach, 2026 could be a year that rewards patience, discipline and diversified thinking.

Pete Wasko, Senior Portfolio Manager, Copia Capital

Donald Trump’s return to the White House was always likely to create uncertainty. His re-election alongside a host of economic and geopolitical factors contributed to a changeable trading environment.

Nevertheless, despite pockets of volatility, most major asset classes have performed well. For us, it’s been a year where narrative-driven investing, prudent protection and thoughtful diversification have all played a role in delivering strong performances across our portfolio range. Long-term strategies have borne fruit, considered exposure has provided healthy returns and we’ve structured our portfolios to help manage the challenges. Here are some of my reflections on the market and our performance during 2025.

Lower risk strategies

At the lower end of the risk spectrum, we continued to prioritise protection in a year when volatility often flared up. Maintaining a bias towards short-dated investment-grade bonds proved valuable in navigating sticky inflation and ongoing uncertainty surrounding interest rates.

Over the past 18 months, we have gradually built exposure to government bonds, primarily gilts and treasuries, taking a measured approach given ongoing fluctuations in these markets driven by international and domestic political developments. Despite this volatility, yields have eased, particularly in 10- and 30-year maturities.

Asset-backed securities have also proved useful. Their stability and mid- to high-single-digit returns made them a reliable tool for supporting lower-risk portfolios.

Richard Warne, Senior Portfolio Manager, Copia Capital

Our Short-Dated Bond Portfolio (SDBP) has just passed its three-year anniversary. Looking back on performance, the team and I are very proud that it’s delivered on our core objective to provide steady and better-than-cash returns with low levels of risk and volatility.

Quick recap on the structure

The portfolio is constructed of short-dated investment grade bonds. It’s widely diversified with over 1,400 underlying holdings. Its core of short-duration investment grade corporate and UK government bonds is backed up by a satellite of high yield asset backed securities (ABSs) and emerging market debt. We’ve used a low duration strategy to ensure less sensitivity and movement in response to interest rate expectations.

You can see in the table below that over the three-year period it’s not been a smooth ride for the broader bond market. The UK Government Bond (Gilts) Index reached a maximum drawdown level (the difference between the index’s peak and its bottom point aka the largest loss an investor might have endured) of -8.4% during this time frame. Our SDBP’s maximum drawdown was significantly lower at just -1.1%.