Every successful investment partnership is grounded in data and based on a mutual appreciation of risk. Copia’s highly successful and scientific investment methodology is guided by our specially developed, proprietary Risk Barometer.
This unique tool is available only to Copia’s clients. It takes the predictive output from our Quant model ensuring that all tactical asset allocation decisions are driven by a sound quantitative process, reducing manager risk and behavioural biases.
We use the Risk Barometer to help you manage investment uncertainty for your clients. Our Quant Model looks at economic indicators and current investment prices to predict the future economic outlook. The Risk Barometer adds an additional layer of protection for clients, tilting portfolios towards safer asset classes during periods of uncertainty to further reduce client exposure to riskier investments.
The Risk Barometer edged up from +0.25 to +0.26 on 31 March 2025, but this modest one-point gain masks a turbulent month.
Mid-March saw the model briefly leap into the green zone, propelled by a wave of optimism in equity markets—European indices rallied on robust earnings and a weaker euro, while emerging markets caught a tailwind from easing global supply chain pressures, signalling a potential stabilisation after months of uneven performance. However, this reprieve was short-lived. The Barometer recoiled back into amber as it registered heightened volatility sparked by Trump’s policy moves where his administration’s aggressive rhetoric on trade, including new tariff threats against China and the EU, rattled U.S. markets, sending tech and consumer stocks into a tailspin and spiking the VIX.
By the end of the month, the amber reading reflects this unease, and the outlook hints at further slippage in April as Trump’s “tariff war” unfolds, with markets bracing for retaliatory measures which could choke global growth. The Barometer’s sensitivity to these swings underscores a fragile balance—bright spots in equities overshadowed by policy-driven turbulence.
Notice:
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.
This information is intended for professional financial advisers only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. Model investment portfolios may not be suitable for everyone. The value of funds can increase and decrease, past performance and historical data cannot guarantee future success. Investors may get back less than they originally invested.
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