The infoshot to help kick-start your week
US and Israel launch Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion
On Saturday, the US and Israeli forces launched strikes across Iran targeting key security and political targets. President Trump announced the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei later that day. Airstrikes have continued across the country since, and, despite the loss of forty senior commanders, the Iranians have continued retaliating by bombing targets in Israel and the Gulf. Unlike last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer, Trump expects the current campaign to go on for “four weeks or less”.
At least three ships were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz this weekend and the important waterway is effectively at a standstill. 20% of the world’s oil and gas are shipped through Hormuz. A prolonged closure could see the price of oil go over $100 a barrel and have a huge impact on not just petrol prices but also food, agriculture, industrial commodities and inflation in general. At the time of writing this morning, oil has surged, with benchmark WTI Crude up 7% to $72 a barrel. European natural gas prices have risen by as much as 25%, the biggest increase in nearly three years.
Asian and European markets have fallen sharply in response to the conflict. The Nikkei 225 lost 1.35%, and European markets in Germany, France, Italy and Spain all started trading down more than 2%. In the UK, the FTSE indexes have started the day down between 0.90% and 1.5%. Airlines and banks have taken the brunt of the price drops. Defence firms, gold and the dollar (typically considered a safe asset in times of conflict) have risen. Obviously, things are moving very fast at the moment and there’s a lot of information to digest. From our perspective, this weekend serves as yet another reminder to avoid knee-jerk decisions and focus on diversification.
Viral doomsday essay sparks another tech sell off
The viral “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” essay by Citrini Research spooked investors sparking another tech sell off. The essay portrays a hypothetical scenario where autonomous AI agents upend the US economy causing unemployment to surge above 10% and the S&P to fall 38%. The essay specifically names the likes of Uber, DoorDash, Mastercard and American Express as major victims of the transition — Uber and DoorDash suffer due to the ease with which developers can code up their own delivery apps, Mastercard and American Express because the AI agents decide to use cryptocurrencies for business dealings. The real-world response saw all their share prices fall between 4% and 6% on Monday.
Of course, it’s not the first modern doomsday take on AI (see recent bestsellers Nexus and If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies) but it struck such a nerve with investors that it helped send the Dow Jones down 1.7%.
Nvidia’s latest quarterly earnings briefly put a pause on the decline. Revenue beat expectations by around $3bn, climbing to $68.1 for the quarter. That’s a 20% increase on Q3 and 73% up from a year ago. However, the chip makers results weren’t enough to reverse Monday’s worries with US indexes falling overall by the end of trading on Friday.
According to a report released last week by Goldman Sachs, more investors are now seeking AI-resistant “heavy assets, low obsolescence” or what they’ve deemed, “Halo” stocks. This shift towards companies that provide tangible and useful products, like energy and transport firms, has helped push European and UK markets to record levels this year.
OpenAI to work with Pentagon as they break another funding record
In other AI (and modern warfare) news, last week Anthropic refused to work with the US Department of Defence (DoD) over concerns about how its AI technology will be used. The makers of Claude, were concerned about the potential use of its tools for “mass domestic surveillance” and “fully autonomous weapons” with CEO Dario Amodei stating his company won’t allow his tech to “undermine, rather than defend, democratic values.” US Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth then threatened to invoke the Defence Protection Act to force them to comply and Trump said he would direct all federal agencies to “IMMEDIATELY CEASE” using Anthropic tools. However just hours later, OpenAI struck a deal with the Pentagon allowing them to imbed AI into classified US military networks.
OpenAI is now valued at $840bn after they announced on Friday that they’ve raised another $110bn so far in their latest funding round. That’s more than double the $40bn they generated last year in what was the biggest private tech deal on record.
Coming Up:
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Monday 2 March 2026
- UK Spring Statement, Tuesday 3 March 2026
- US Retail Sales (Jan), Friday 6 March 2026
Notice:
For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.
