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29th December 2025

Weekly Espresso

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

 

US GDP hits its highest rate in two years

Released just before the Christmas break, data from the Bureau for Economic Analysis showed US GDP rose from 3.8% to 4.3% in the third quarter of the year. Economists had been expecting growth to slow, and the rate is far higher than expected. Consumer spending rose from 2.5% to 3.5%, and imports continued to decline while exports surged by 7.4%. On Truth Social, Trump credited his tariffs, posting “The TARIFFS are responsible for the GREAT USA Economic Numbers JUST ANNOUNCED… AND THEY WILL ONLY GET BETTER!”

Interestingly, AI investment made its smallest contribution to US GDP so far this year representing 14% of Q3’s growth. AI categories have now accounted for 37% of all real US GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published revised UK GDP numbers on Monday. The latest figures estimate GDP shrank 0.1% in the July to September quarter.

Farmer inheritance tax threshold increased to £2.5mn

Following more than a year of protests from farmers, the UK government has amended their plans to tax inherited farmland, increasing the proposed inherited agricultural assets tax threshold from £1mn to £2.5mn.

Combined with the exemption that allows farmers to pass on assets to spouses tax-free, the new threshold means a couple could pass on up to £5mn in qualifying assets without paying tax. A 50% tax will be applied to all remaining assets. According to the government, the new threshold should nearly halve the number of effected estates to 1,100.

Boxing Day sales follow pre-Christmas spending trend

In the UK, Boxing Day shopping fell again with visits to UK high streets down 1.5% and shopping centre footfall falling 0.6%, according to MRI software. While many have taken their shopping online, it also follows broader Christmas spending patterns that have seen UK households cut back on festive purchases at the fastest rate since 2021.  

In the markets, hopes of a “Santa rally” here in the UK were dashed when the FTSE 100 closed for Christmas down 0.2%. US stocks on the other hand rallied pushing the S&P 500 up 0.32% and the Nasdaq up 0.22%.

Gold and silver break more records

Gold and Silver set new records over Christmas. Gold went up to $4,546 an ounce on Boxing Day, and yesterday silver surged past $82 an ounce.

Gold is now up around $2,000 an ounce since the start of the year. Silver has fallen back down to $75 an ounce this morning, but that is still three times as high as where it started 2025.

Coming Up:

  • China Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday 31 December 2025
  • US Initial Jobless Claims, Wednesday 31 December 2025
  • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Friday 2 January 2026

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such. The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

Risk Barometer

+ 0.69

as at latest realignment 01/12/2025

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