Blog

28th July 2025

Weekly Espresso

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

 

Tariff deals with Japan and EU announced

On Tuesday, Japan and the US announced a trade agreement that Trump heralded as the “largest trade deal in history”.

In return, Japan will invest $550bn into the US, and according to Trump, the US “will receive 90% of the profits.” The investment is expected to be made via equity and loan support to Japanese business investments in pharmaceuticals, critical minerals and semiconductors. However, reporting in the days since seems to suggest that Japanese officials believe there’s no legally binding agreement for this profit arrangement, and a slideshow presented by Japan’s Cabinet Office on Friday contradicts Trump’s profit ratio saying the distribution will be “based on the degree of contribution and risk taken by each party”.

Regardless of the deal’s contradictions, the news sent the Nikkei up 3.7% on the day. It did mellow out slightly to finish the week up just below 3%.

While visiting Scotland this weekend, Trump also reached a trade agreement with the EU. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Trump agreed a tariff on all EU exports to the US of 15% – half of the 30% rate Trump had threatened to implement. Markets are up this morning following the news, with the FTSE 100 reaching a record high of 9,165 shortly after opening.

The EU will now also invest $600bn on US military equipment and spend $750bn on US energy over the next three years. According to von der Leyen, the energy investment will help reduce European reliance on Russian energy sources. The 50% tariff on steel and aluminium will stay in place.

The US have now secured tariff agreements with the EU, UK, Japan, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam, but they’re still some way off Trump’s goal of “90 deals in 90 days”.

 

Trump’s infamous signature unleashes AI, as OpenAI enters UK schools and hospitals

In the long run (and from an existential perspective), possibly the most consequential Trump signatures this week were written on Wednesday when he signed three executive orders related to AI that the White House claims will “solidify its position as the leader in AI”. 

The AI Action Plan outlines 90 policy actions for the US government and the AI industry to implement this year. Federal agencies will be tasked with reviewing and repealing policies that hold back AI development, and they will be encouraged to increase AI usage in both the public and private sector. The order also aims to tackle supposedly “ideologically biased” AI systems and promote international exports of US AI tech. Trump rescinded the safety and security standards governing the use of AI on day one of his second term – these orders contain nothing to replace this.

In what was already a good week for major AI companies, here in the UK the government gave OpenAI an additional win by signing a deal to use their AI technology in UK public services. OpenAI will now expand its London office as it potentially starts to use government data to see its software unleashed in schools, healthcare, defence and the legal system.

Conversely, there was bad news for news companies as two reports were released demonstrating the “devasting impact” AI summaries on search results are having on visits. The analytics company Authoritas found that a site ranked first in a search result could lose 79% of its clicks if it’s shown below an AI overview, and a second study by US thinktank, the Pew Research Center found users only clicked a news link under an AI summary once every hundred times.

Coming Up:

  • US GDP Q2, Wednesday 30 July 2025 at 13:30pm
  • Fed interest rate decision, Wednesday 30 July 2025 at 19:00pm
  • China manufacturing PMI, Thursday 31 July 2025 at 02:30am

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such. The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class.  This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

Risk Barometer

-0.49

as at latest realignment 02/07/2025

    Subscribe

    Subscribe to our blog and get our best content in your inbox.



    Understanding the risks

    This information is intended for professional financial advisers only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. Model investment portfolios may not be suitable for everyone. The value of funds can increase and decrease, past performance and historical data cannot guarantee future success. Investors may get back less than they originally invested.

    Copia Capital Management

    Hamilton House, 1 Temple Avenue, London, EC4Y 0HA

    Copia Capital Management is a trading name of Novia Financial Plc. Novia Financial Plc is a limited company registered in England & Wales. Register Number: 06467886. Registered office: Cambridge House, Henry St, Bath, Somerset BA1 1JS. Novia Financial Plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Register Number: 481600.

    © 2021 - 2025 Copia Capital

    Advisers, staff of professional firms and other eligible counterparties

    I work for an advisory / professional firm or other eligible counterparty.

    I will take responsibility for any jurisdictional restrictions that apply to the services described by this website in accordance with applicable law and regulation.

    I have read and accept that Cookies are used on this website.  I understand that a Cookie will show that I have accepted the terms to access this website.

    Customers and prospective customers

    I confirm that I am resident in the UK or other EU Country and I am not a US citizen.

    I have read and accept that Cookies are used on this website.  I understand that a Cookie will show that I have accepted the terms to access this website.


    The content of this website may only be viewed by persons that meet either of the above conditions.  If neither option is applicable please click here which will close this webpage.