Blog

6th May 2025

Weekly Espresso

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

 

Trump reaches 100 days in office and announces 100% tariffs on films produced outside the US

Celebrating the first 100 days of a US president’s term became significant during FDR’s initial period in office and the major reforms he announced during the Great Depression. Trump marked his 100th day in office on Tuesday with a campaign style speech in Michigan telling the crowd “We’ve just gotten started, you haven’t seen anything yet.” In the markets so far in his second term, the S&P is down nearly 7%, and the dollar has posted its worst performance since November 2022, contracting by -4.6%.

According to reports last week, US officials have decided to split tariff trade negotiations with countries into three phases. Asian trading partners, South Korea, India and Japan top the priority list. The UK has reportedly been placed in phase two.

On Sunday, Trump announced on Truth Social that he will hit movies made in foreign countries with 100% tariffs. Trump’s posts were short on detail, and led to questions about whether the tariffs would apply to American film companies making films abroad, or whether they might be applied retrospectively. Many Hollywood studios have moved productions overseas to take advantage of tax credits and lower labour costs, having to shoot in the US would push up production costs. Shares in US streamers and production companies all fell on Monday, sending the Nasdaq down 0.6%.   

Big gains for Reform put pressure on Starmer and Reeves to change tack

Reform UK won 677 of the 1,600 contested local election seats on Thursday. They took control of eight local authorities from the Conservatives, and won Doncaster, the only local council that Labour was defending.

The results are reportedly forcing a rethink in Downing Street as Starmer and Reeves consider altering their controversial changes to winter fuel payments and £5bn of planned benefit cuts.

Bank of Japan maintains interest rate level

In line with expectations, on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held interest rates at 0.5% for the second time in a row. Inflation remained above the BoJ’s 2% target, but any room to raise rates has been complicated by Trump’s tariffs. Trade negotiations between US and Japanese officials remain at an early stage.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the Au Jibun Bank showed that the manufacturing sector continued to weaken in April. Industrial production also fell 1.1% in March, far more than the expected 0.5% drop, as manufacturers scaled back output amid all the current trade and tariff uncertainty.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett announces he will step down as Berkshire Chief Executive 

During a speech on Saturday evening to 40,000 investors, Warren Buffett announced that he will step down as Chief Executive of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of the year, after more than 60 years at the head of the company. In that time, Buffett has transformed Berkshire from a struggling textile firm into a giant global conglomerate that has delivered annual returns of nearly 20%.

Greg Abel, the current vice chairman and Head of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, was named as his successor. Buffett, confirmed he won’t be selling any of his shares in the firm, and that he believes “the prospects of Berkshire will be better under Greg’s management”.

Buffett, a lifelong democrat, spoke out against Trump’s tariffs in his closing remarks, telling investors the US should not use “trade as a weapon” and instead, “be looking to trade with the rest of the world.”

Coming Up:

  • Fed Interest Rate Decision, Wednesday 7 May 2025 at 19:00pm
  • BoE Interest Rate Decision, Thursday 8 May 2025 at 12:00pm
  • US 30-Year Bond Auction, Thursday 8 May 2025 at 18:00pm

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such. The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class.  This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

Risk Barometer

-0.42

as at latest realignment 01/05/2025

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