The infoshot to help kick-start your week
Last Week
- The Trump trade is gaining momentum as betting odds increased that Donald Trump might win the US presidential election in November following an assassination attempt. Early on Monday, the dollar strengthened, Treasury futures declined, the Mexican peso weakened, and Bitcoin surged. These movements reflect market speculation that a Republican return to the White House could lead to tax cuts, higher tariffs, and looser regulations. However, some initial knee-jerk reactions are starting to fade. Investors will be closely monitoring Treasuries when cash trading starts in Europe, as they were closed in Asia due to a holiday in Japan.
- European Central Bank (ECB) officials might be preparing investors for another interest rate cut, though it will come after one of the Governing Council’s longest summer breaks between decisions. While a move on Thursday is effectively ruled out as policymakers take time to assess lingering inflation pressures, traders will be watching closely for any clues from President Christine Lagarde about the prospects for the September 12 meeting.
- In the UK, this week’s services sector and jobs market data may reveal lingering signs of strong inflation. This could prompt the Bank of England to delay cutting rates in August. The British pound is trading slightly weaker against the US dollar today, though it remains near its strongest level in about a year. This week’s inflation report could test the currency’s resilience. Meanwhile, British home sellers have reduced asking prices for the first time this year due to election uncertainty and persistently high mortgage rates, which have dampened market confidence.
Market Pulse
Coming Up
- UK CPI Data, Wednesday 17th July 2024 at 7:00am
- UK Average Earnings Index, Thursday 18th July 2024 at 7:00am.
- ECB Interest Rate Decision, Thursday 18th July 2024 at 1:15pm.
- ECB Press Conference, Thursday 18th July 2024 at 1:45pm.
Notice:
For professional advisers only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such. The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.Open document settingsOpen publish panel
