So far, the twenty-twenties has been characterised by a series of demand and supply shocks that have exposed the fragility of the old global order. The Covid pandemic, “Liberation Day” and conflicts like the Russia–Ukraine war and US-Israeli strikes on Iran have all had a major impact on trade and economic norms. Many countries are increasingly prioritising self-interest over multilateral coordination, with a growing group of “middle powers” looking to work together to face this new political environment. The result is a global economy that is becoming divided along more segmented strategic lines. Trade capital flows and alliances are being influenced more by national security considerations and political alignment than pure economic efficiency.
For the last century, the US has played a central role in shaping the global order. It has enforced international law, upheld global institutions and been the West’s benevolent benefactor. However, following the election of Donald Trump for a second term, and with him the ‘Donroe Doctrine’*, we’re seeing a reversal of this. Trump has put the EU and NATO on notice, first demanding an increase in defence spending then threatening to annex Greenland in the interests of ‘national security’. All this has led to a startling shift in European public opinion towards the US. According to the latest survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), only 11% of respondents from 15 countries now view the US as an ally. Trump and his administration argue that they’ve been putting the needs of other nations ahead of their own for too long, and it is now time to adopt the “America First” agenda. Ten years on from the EU referendum, it’s easy to look back on the vote to leave and draw similarities. The idea that the UK was supposedly contributing more than its fair share, whilst having its hands tied on political, social and economic issues, was central to the vote leave campaign.
Global fragmentation, self-interest and isolationism have spread further afield this year. At the start of May, the UAE left OPEC, the 12-member organisation that controls and coordinates around 35% of worldwide crude oil production. Leaving to gain flexibility and control over their crude oil reserves, the UAE’s departure signifies a major shift in regional relationships and will likely weaken the overall influence of OPEC.
We’re also seeing a growing focus on energy security and control over rare earth minerals and materials. The US has announced a $12 billion project called ‘Project Vault’ that aims to stockpile rare earth elements and key materials used in supercomputers and electric vehicles. Australia has recently announced plans to start an $800 million state-backed reserve, with the EU, Japan, South Korea and China all implementing similar policies. These strategies not only highlight the importance of such materials, but also the growing concern that access to them will come under threat in the near future.
This creates additional ripples. It’s evident that growing demand for these materials will put upwards pressure on prices. And, if countries are focusing on building stockpiles above-and-beyond what they currently consume, supply will be unable to keep up, and prices will be forced even higher to erode this excess demand. This is an even larger issue when you consider that it can take up to 20-years for a typical copper mine to start producing and many analysts are already estimating structural supply deficits by the end of the decade, particularly as trends such as electrification, AI and digitalisation accelerate.
Shifting alliances
At this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Mark Carne gave a landmark speech calling on the ‘middle powers’ to unite in the face of “a brutal reality where geopolitics among the great powers is not subject to any restraints”. Carne plans to double Canada’s exports to non-US partners within a decade, and has already renewed ties with China, set up a critical minerals deal with Australia and held discussions with Nordic leaders on defence procurement.
The BRICS+ expansion in 2025 means that over 55% of the global population and over 40% of the global economy is now represented by a single trading bloc, in contrast the EU only covers 5.5% of the global population. The Gulf states, dealing with the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, have learnt that the US is no longer a reliable political partner, and will need to strive to develop new relationships both internally and outside of the US. In 2023, the term ‘CRINK’ – China, Russia, Iran & North Korea – was coined. This coalition of authoritarian regimes is feared to challenge the Western Hegemony of NATO, and whilst a formal alliance was never created, Russia has now signed strategic partnership treaties with all three countries. AUKUS, initially announced in 2021, brings the UK, US and Australia together on nuclear submarine development and the sharing of military expertise.
In a world dominated by supply shocks, geopolitical fragmentation and shifting alliances, diversification has never been more important. This is true for both policymakers and investors, where resilience across asset classes, geographies and industries is crucial for both national security and the protection of capital in all areas of the market.
*The original 19th century Monroe Doctrine served as a defence warning to European powers to stay out of the Americas. In a stark contrast, Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’ promotes using military force, economic pressure and aggressive foreign policy calls to maintain dominance in the region and stop rivals from gaining influence.
This article is intended for regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. Remember, the value of investments will fluctuate, and capital is at risk.
Want to find out more about Copia and investment approach?
Ben and the team are available Monday to Friday, and always happy to discuss our approach to investing and DFM services.
If you’d like to find out more about how we can help you and your clients, send us a message or call 020 4599 6475.
22nd June 2026
The age of fragmented relations, shifting alliances and diversification
So far, the twenty-twenties has been characterised by a series of demand and supply shocks that have exposed the fragility of the old global order. The Covid pandemic, “Liberation Day” and conflicts like the Russia–Ukraine war and US-Israeli strikes on Iran have all had a major impact on trade and economic norms. Many countries are increasingly prioritising self-interest over multilateral coordination, with a growing group of “middle powers” looking to work together to face this new political environment. The result is a global economy that is becoming divided along more segmented strategic lines. Trade capital flows and alliances are being influenced more by national security considerations and political alignment than pure economic efficiency.
For the last century, the US has played a central role in shaping the global order. It has enforced international law, upheld global institutions and been the West’s benevolent benefactor. However, following the election of Donald Trump for a second term, and with him the ‘Donroe Doctrine’*, we’re seeing a reversal of this. Trump has put the EU and NATO on notice, first demanding an increase in defence spending then threatening to annex Greenland in the interests of ‘national security’. All this has led to a startling shift in European public opinion towards the US. According to the latest survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), only 11% of respondents from 15 countries now view the US as an ally. Trump and his administration argue that they’ve been putting the needs of other nations ahead of their own for too long, and it is now time to adopt the “America First” agenda. Ten years on from the EU referendum, it’s easy to look back on the vote to leave and draw similarities. The idea that the UK was supposedly contributing more than its fair share, whilst having its hands tied on political, social and economic issues, was central to the vote leave campaign.
Global fragmentation, self-interest and isolationism have spread further afield this year. At the start of May, the UAE left OPEC, the 12-member organisation that controls and coordinates around 35% of worldwide crude oil production. Leaving to gain flexibility and control over their crude oil reserves, the UAE’s departure signifies a major shift in regional relationships and will likely weaken the overall influence of OPEC.
We’re also seeing a growing focus on energy security and control over rare earth minerals and materials. The US has announced a $12 billion project called ‘Project Vault’ that aims to stockpile rare earth elements and key materials used in supercomputers and electric vehicles. Australia has recently announced plans to start an $800 million state-backed reserve, with the EU, Japan, South Korea and China all implementing similar policies. These strategies not only highlight the importance of such materials, but also the growing concern that access to them will come under threat in the near future.
This creates additional ripples. It’s evident that growing demand for these materials will put upwards pressure on prices. And, if countries are focusing on building stockpiles above-and-beyond what they currently consume, supply will be unable to keep up, and prices will be forced even higher to erode this excess demand. This is an even larger issue when you consider that it can take up to 20-years for a typical copper mine to start producing and many analysts are already estimating structural supply deficits by the end of the decade, particularly as trends such as electrification, AI and digitalisation accelerate.
Shifting alliances
At this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Mark Carne gave a landmark speech calling on the ‘middle powers’ to unite in the face of “a brutal reality where geopolitics among the great powers is not subject to any restraints”. Carne plans to double Canada’s exports to non-US partners within a decade, and has already renewed ties with China, set up a critical minerals deal with Australia and held discussions with Nordic leaders on defence procurement.
The BRICS+ expansion in 2025 means that over 55% of the global population and over 40% of the global economy is now represented by a single trading bloc, in contrast the EU only covers 5.5% of the global population. The Gulf states, dealing with the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, have learnt that the US is no longer a reliable political partner, and will need to strive to develop new relationships both internally and outside of the US. In 2023, the term ‘CRINK’ – China, Russia, Iran & North Korea – was coined. This coalition of authoritarian regimes is feared to challenge the Western Hegemony of NATO, and whilst a formal alliance was never created, Russia has now signed strategic partnership treaties with all three countries. AUKUS, initially announced in 2021, brings the UK, US and Australia together on nuclear submarine development and the sharing of military expertise.
In a world dominated by supply shocks, geopolitical fragmentation and shifting alliances, diversification has never been more important. This is true for both policymakers and investors, where resilience across asset classes, geographies and industries is crucial for both national security and the protection of capital in all areas of the market.
*The original 19th century Monroe Doctrine served as a defence warning to European powers to stay out of the Americas. In a stark contrast, Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’ promotes using military force, economic pressure and aggressive foreign policy calls to maintain dominance in the region and stop rivals from gaining influence.
This article is intended for regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. Remember, the value of investments will fluctuate, and capital is at risk.
Want to find out more about Copia and investment approach?
Ben and the team are available Monday to Friday, and always happy to discuss our approach to investing and DFM services.
If you’d like to find out more about how we can help you and your clients, send us a message or call 020 4599 6475.