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Weekly Espresso

The S&P closed at a record high of 6,173 on Friday, taking its jump since the fall on “Liberation Day” to around 24%. The Nasdaq also set an all-time high.

The good week was influenced by the easing of tensions with Iran, a trade deal with China, and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant that suggested the administration could push back its 9 July tariff deadline, saying in an interview on Fox that the US “could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day [1 September 2025].”

Navigating conflict as an investor

It was a surprise to many that President Donald Trump authorised Operation Midnight Hammer just six months into his term, particularly given that he was elected on an anti-war ticket.
Although there were some fluctuations in oil prices, they remained largely stable in comparison with prices earlier in the year. Markets also held steady, even following the US involvement…

Weekly Espresso

Markets moved in tandem to the situation in the Middle East throughout the week, with some additional relief coming Friday morning following Trump’s claim he needed two weeks to decide whether to involve the US military in Iran. However, this sentiment was scuppered less than two days later after the Americans attacked three Iranian nuclear sites.

Trump said the operation was a “spectacular success” and warned that if Iran did not abandon its nuclear programme, he would launch more attacks that were “far worse and a lot easier.”

Who will be the real winners in the AI revolution?

It is hard to get through a week these days without hearing something new regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI). Whether it be regulation or innovation, praise or criticism, most people have had their say by now.

As an investor, it may have initially been hard to look beyond the providers at the centre of AI development. For a while, the group dubbed the ‘Magnificent Seven’, consisting of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla, appeared the place for unmitigated growth…

Weekly Espresso

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said overall government department spending will increase by 2.3% a year in real terms.

Health is arguably the biggest winner of this Spending Review. The department will receive almost £30bn extra a year towards it budget. £10bn of that has been earmarked for technology and digital transformation. The effective 3% rise is much lower than the funding increases during the last time Labour were in power and there are question marks over whether it’s enough to tackle backlogs and cover pay rises for doctors and nurses…

Cappuccino Commentary

After the volatility we saw in April driven by US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, equity markets recovered across the board as trade tensions began to ease. We also saw improving consumer sentiment and robust corporate earnings which all helped drive positive equity market returns.

The US equity market was the best performing region in May, delivering +5.5%, which was underpinned by a strong Q1 earnings season. Of the companies that reported, 77% exceeded earnings expectations. The euphoria was felt across the market cap spectrum, as small cap stocks rebounded buoyed by proposed tax cuts and potential regulatory changes…

Understanding the risks

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