Iran announced that it will withdraw its commitments from the nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Sunday January 5, after the US killed the Iranian Major General Soleimani. On Tuesday January 7, Iran admitted that it had conducted attacks with tens of ballistic missiles on the American base in Iraq’s Kurdistan.

Also on Tuesday, 176 people on board of the Ukrainian Airlines’ Boeing 737 plane died in a crash near Tehran. Iran denied that the plane was shot down by its missiles.

On Thursday January 9, BoE Governor Mark Carney gave a speech that was deemed suggestive of interest rates cuts. He stated that the UK economy has been sluggish and the bank has policy space to cut rates by equivalent of 250 basis points.

On Friday January 10, US nonfarm payrolls data was published, showing an employment increase of 145,000 in December, missing the estimates of 164,000. The unemployment rate remained at 3.5%.

  On Wednesday January 15, UK CPI for December will also be announced, with an expectation of 1.5% YoY.

China GDP growth will be released on Friday January 17, at an expected rate of 6.00% YoY.

+0.65*

-1.0     A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.

0.0       A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.

+1.0   A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.

*as at latest realignment 31/12/2019

Notice:

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.