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The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will all hold meetings this week to make their latest decisions on interest rates. Across the board, no rate changes are widely expected. However, analysts and investors will have a firm eye on the statements and guidance to gauge the likelihood of rate changes later in the year and get a better grasp of the economic fallout from the conflict in Iran.

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting could be the last presided over by Jerome Powell…

After a prolonged period in which strong equity returns largely masked underlying risks, conditions have become more unsettled in recent years. Trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty are now refocusing attention on volatility, with advisers once again having frequent conversations with clients about market shocks, sequencing risk (selling investments to support income payments) and investing during falling markets…

Broadly speaking, markets across the globe had a positive week following several optimistic updates about an end to the conflict in Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, President Trump said the war was “close to over” and that during a call with President Xi, China was very happy that he was “permanently opening” the strait.

However, after being briefly reopened on Friday, the shipping route was shut again Saturday evening…

Over the past month, the escalation of the Middle East conflict has dominated global financial markets. On the last day of February, the US, in coordination with Israel, launched a series of airstrikes and military operations targeting Iranian government and military facilities, including the assassination of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s response was swift and included military retaliation across the region against Israel and several other Gulf states. As of the time of writing, there has not been a conclusive resolution to the conflict, and this has resulted in major disruptions to shipping through the Gulf and a sharp increase in energy prices…

When markets reopened after Easter, the conflict in Iran was inevitably top of the agenda. On Tuesday, President Trump threatened “A whole civilisation will die tonight” if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz couldn’t be reached by his 8pm deadline. Thankfully, Trump backed down and agreed to a two-week ceasefire…

In fast‑moving financial markets, having a disciplined approach to managing risk is essential. Here at Copia we use a range of quantitative and qualitative tools to help guide portfolio decisions. One of the most important of these is our Risk Barometer; a structured, data‑driven indicator designed to help us assess fundamental market conditions and adjust equity exposure accordingly…