Copia Capital

The age of fragmented relations, shifting alliances and diversification

Benjamin Averill — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 16:44:25 +0000

So far, the twenty-twenties has been characterised by a series of demand and supply shocks that have exposed the fragility of the old global order. The Covid pandemic, “Liberation Day” and conflicts like the Russia–Ukraine war and US-Israeli strikes on Iran have all had a major impact on trade and economic norms. Many countries are increasingly prioritising self-interest over multilateral coordination, with a growing group of “middle powers” looking to work together to face this new political environment. The result is a global economy that is becoming divided along more segmented strategic lines. Trade capital flows and alliances are being influenced more by national security considerations and political alignment than pure economic efficiency.

For the last century, the US has played a central role in shaping the global order. It has enforced international law, upheld global institutions and been the West’s benevolent benefactor. However, following the election of Donald Trump for a second term, and with him the ‘Donroe Doctrine’*, we’re seeing a reversal of this. Trump has put the EU and NATO on notice, first demanding an increase in defence spending then threatening to annex Greenland in the interests of ‘national security’. All this has led to a startling shift in European public opinion towards the US. According to the latest survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), only 11% of respondents from 15 countries now view the US as an ally. Trump and his administration argue that they’ve been putting the needs of other nations ahead of their own for too long, and it is now time to adopt the “America First” agenda. Ten years on from the EU referendum, it’s easy to look back on the vote to leave and draw similarities. The idea that the UK was supposedly contributing more than its fair share, whilst having its hands tied on political, social and economic issues, was central to the vote leave campaign.

Global fragmentation, self-interest and isolationism have spread further afield this year. At the start of May, the UAE left OPEC, the 12-member organisation that controls and coordinates around 35% of worldwide crude oil production. Leaving to gain flexibility and control over their crude oil reserves, the UAE’s departure signifies a major shift in regional relationships and will likely weaken the overall influence of OPEC.

We’re also seeing a growing focus on energy security and control over rare earth minerals and materials. The US has announced a $12 billion project called ‘Project Vault’ that aims to stockpile rare earth elements and key materials used in supercomputers and electric vehicles. Australia has recently announced plans to start an $800 million state-backed reserve, with the EU, Japan, South Korea and China all implementing similar policies. These strategies not only highlight the importance of such materials, but also the growing concern that access to them will come under threat in the near future.

This creates additional ripples. It’s evident that growing demand for these materials will put upwards pressure on prices. And, if countries are focusing on building stockpiles above-and-beyond what they currently consume, supply will be unable to keep up, and prices will be forced even higher to erode this excess demand. This is an even larger issue when you consider that it can take up to 20-years for a typical copper mine to start producing and many analysts are already estimating structural supply deficits by the end of the decade, particularly as trends such as electrification, AI and digitalisation accelerate.

Shifting alliances

At this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Mark Carne gave a landmark speech calling on the ‘middle powers’ to unite in the face of “a brutal reality where geopolitics among the great powers is not subject to any restraints”. Carne plans to double Canada’s exports to non-US partners within a decade, and has already renewed ties with China, set up a critical minerals deal with Australia and held discussions with Nordic leaders on defence procurement.

The BRICS+ expansion in 2025 means that over 55% of the global population and over 40% of the global economy is now represented by a single trading bloc, in contrast the EU only covers 5.5% of the global population. The Gulf states, dealing with the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, have learnt that the US is no longer a reliable political partner, and will need to strive to develop new relationships both internally and outside of the US. In 2023, the term ‘CRINK’ – China, Russia, Iran & North Korea – was coined. This coalition of authoritarian regimes is feared to challenge the Western Hegemony of NATO, and whilst a formal alliance was never created, Russia has now signed strategic partnership treaties with all three countries. AUKUS, initially announced in 2021, brings the UK, US and Australia together on nuclear submarine development and the sharing of military expertise.

In a world dominated by supply shocks, geopolitical fragmentation and shifting alliances, diversification has never been more important. This is true for both policymakers and investors, where resilience across asset classes, geographies and industries is crucial for both national security and the protection of capital in all areas of the market.

*The original 19^th century Monroe Doctrine served as a defence warning to European powers to stay out of the Americas. In a stark contrast, Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’ promotes using military force, economic pressure and aggressive foreign policy calls to maintain dominance in the region and stop rivals from gaining influence.

This article is intended for regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. Remember, the value of investments will fluctuate, and capital is at risk.

Want to find out more about Copia and investment approach?

Ben and the team are available Monday to Friday, and always happy to discuss our approach to investing and DFM services.

If you’d like to find out more about how we can help you and your clients, send us a message or call 020 4599 6475.

The post The age of fragmented relations, shifting alliances and diversification appeared first on Copia Capital.

Weekly Espresso

Peter Wasko — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 13:46:49 +0000

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Starmer steps down – Today

As I write this morning, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has just announced his resignation. Following Andy Burnham’s resounding victory in the Makerfield by-election last week, he is expected to take over the reins. This week we’re likely to find out whether he’ll have to fight a full leadership contest or be elected PM without challenge. Potential contender, Wes Streeting has already come out and backed Burnham, simplifying Burnham’s path to number 10.

In the weeks and months ahead, investors will be keeping a keen eye on who Burnham appoints as Chancellor, any plans to deviate from the current fiscal limits, and whether he can repeat his Manchester growth story on a national level. Widely seen as the UK’s fastest growing city, Manchester’s economy has grown by 28% since 2015, more than double the national rate.

US-Iran talks continue – all week

Peace talks that were scheduled for Friday were delayed after Israel and Hezbollah started exchanging fire again. On Saturday, the Strait of Hormuz was shut by the Iranians after Israeli strikes on Southern Lebanon killed 47 people. In-person negotiations between senior officials started yesterday and lower-ranked officials will continue talks this week. The US and Iran have agreed to a roadmap for finalising a deal within 60 days. The US Treasury is preparing to issue a 60-day wavier of sanctions on Iran, meaning they could sell oil in the meanwhile without the threat of repercussions. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said yesterday, “the elimination of the conflict in Lebanon [is] the first real test”, and it looks like the success of week one will come down to whether Israel and Hezbollah can show restraint in Lebanon.

Last week:

Interest rate decisions

We had a trio of important interest rate decisions last week. All went as expected.

The Federal Reserve held US interest rates following Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair. With inflation at 4.2% and no real certainty around when a deal with Iran will be concluded, all twelve members of the committee voted to keep rates the same. Interestingly, the Fed released each committee member’s (aside from Warsh’s) predictions for rate changes this year and nine members expected at least one rate increase. In a TV interview, Trump repeated his desire for rate cuts but said Warsh, “is fantastic, and I want him to do whatever he wants.” During Wednesday’s press conference, Warsh declined to say whether he had met with Trump since becoming Chair.

Here in the UK, the Bank of England also elected to keep its benchmark interest rate the same for a fourth time in a row. The Bank’s Governor, Andrew Bailey, said he was encouraged by recent oil price falls but that the war meant “Whatever happens in the future, the higher energy prices of the past four months mean there’s already some inflationary pressure in the pipeline.” Two of the nine committee members voted to increase rates to 4%. Analysts are now favouring no rate changes before the end of the year but will be wary of all the current geopolitical and domestic uncertainty.

On Tuesday, Japan’s main interest rate was raised to a 31-year high of 1%. The Bank of Japan felt forced to react to higher energy prices and their knock-on effect on inflation. It’s the second rate rise since Sanae Takaichi became Prime Minister. Her drive to boost spending in the country has led to her dismissing the idea of hikes in the past. However, so far, she hasn’t expressed any criticism for the Bank’s decisions as they try to combat inflation.

Tech stocks rebound following Intel-Apple deal

US tech stocks rallied last week after the news of a chip-production deal between Intel and Apple lifted both firms and the broader market. Announced by Trump on Thursday, Intel will start manufacturing chips for Apple in the US, helping them diversify their manufacturing base and become less reliant on Taiwanese companies. The US government took a 10% stake in Intel last August.

Ahead of their upcoming IPO, OpenAI’s financials were leaked to independent journalist and blogger Ed Zitron. Verified by the FT, the numbers showed that despite net revenue tripling to $13.1bn in 2025, the company lost $38.5bn. The losses were exacerbated by the company’s change from a non-profit to a for-profit. But to put them in perspective they’re more than double the infamous losses incurred by Meta’s virtual reality division, Reality Labs, in 2024. In other IPO news, don’t expect the recently floated SpaceX to appear in any ESG funds after it was awarded the lowest possible ESG rating of CCC by MSCI. The report cited governance and sustainability concerns and placed SpaceX in the same rating category as Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

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Cappuccino Commentary

Peter Wasko — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:58:30 +0000

May 2026 Review

In spite of the conflict in the Middle East, equity markets and risk assets delivered strong returns. The mood music seemed to be that a resolution was strongly favoured by both sides, but the conflict continued to roll on past its 100-day anniversary. Outside of this, markets were generally buoyed by the euphoria around artificial intelligence (AI) investments coupled with some strong fundamental earnings from many corporates in the US. “Magnificent Seven” firms, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft all demonstrated returns from their AI investments as their computing units benefited from the intense demand for AI infrastructure. Later in the month, the world’s most valuable company, Nividia, posted stronger than expected earnings with data centre revenue doubling in the last quarter. AI spending helped US GDP rise to 2% in the first quarter of 2026, however May’s reading wasn’t enough to stop US public debt exceeding US annual GDP for the first time since World War Two.

The best performing equity region for the month was Emerging Markets which posted a positive return of over 10%. However, when you start to dig a little deeper, across the Emerging and Asian countries the returns were very different. Again, the AI theme helped drive markets such as South Korea and Taiwan higher thanks to their role in the AI supply chain. However, China did not benefit and their equity market was negative for the month, down nearly 3% on the back of weak domestic sales and industrial production. The broad Asia equity index returned 1.4%, substantially less than the emerging market index. Though Europe has delivered mixed economic data and inflation has been stickier than expected, the region delivered a healthy equity return of nearly 6% on the back of the deescalation of tensions in the Middle East.

The US equity market was up nearly 7% on the back of the AI trend. The AI boom dominated US market growth over the month, with the US information technology sector up 17% in May. Having delivered a stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP number (+2.1% growth), Japanese equities generated returns over 7%. The UK equity market delivered decent if less spectacular returns than many other regions – 2% over the month. In this risk-on environment, broad commodities posted marginally positive return, while gold seemed to lose a bit of its shine and was fractionally negative for the month.

Fixed income markets were volatile over the month as yields contracted and increased based on expectations of shifts in inflation and central bank rhetoric. Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Fed Chair was confirmed by the US senate. Despite the likelihood that he’ll be more sympathetic to the whims of Donald Trump than his predecessor, Jerome Powell, its unlikely he’ll be able to cut interest rates with inflation going in the wrong direction and US job numbers in reasonable health. Overall, fixed income delivered positive returns in May, with the reduction in the conflict in the Middle East being the biggest factor. This saw the price of oil drop below $100 a barrel, relieving some inflationary pressures.

The UK bond market – both UK gilts and corporate bonds – were the best performing of the bond markets, both posting positive returns of 1.9%. In contrast to the employment numbers in the US, here in the UK we saw unemployment unexpectedly rise to 5% and job vacancies fall to a five-year low. Alan Milburn’s independent interim report on young people and work also highlighted how opportunities for young people are declining at an alarming rate with one in six set to be NEET (Not in employment, education or training) within the next five years. With the Bank of England trying to cope with inflationary pressures, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to cut rates in an attempt to drive jobs growth any time soon.

In general, May was a choppy month but one that ultimately proved fruitful for investors. Now that a memorandum of understanding has been agreed between the US and Iran, we might finally see an end to the conflict and the resumption of oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz. If we do, this could reduce inflationary pressures and improve growth prospects for the rest of 2026.

Please note:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only. Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such. The value of investments can increase and decrease, past performance and historical data cannot guarantee future success, and any references to individual stocks or asset classes are made purely for illustrative purposes.

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds and Passive Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at last UK market close before the end of the calendar month. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

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Weekly Espresso

Peter Wasko — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 14:30:31 +0000

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Interest rate decisions

Kevin Warsh will chair his first US Federal Reserve Committee meeting this week. With inflation at a three-year high due to soaring energy costs, and recent US job numbers beating expectations, the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

The Bank of England are also expected to hold interest rates when they meet this week. On Friday the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its main deposit rate by 0.25% to 2.25%. The Bank of Japan is expected to follow suit on Wednesday and raise its interest rate by the same margin, taking it to 1%. If you want more information on Warsh’s appointment and the outlook for interest rates, I’ve recently written a longer piece on the subjects which we’ll be publishing later this week.

Last week:

US-Iran peace deal agreed

Investors drew a collective sigh of relief last night after Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a deal between the US and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East. Sharif said both sides had agreed to “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon”.

However, the situation in Lebanon could jeopardise the signing of the deal. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, says the IDF plans to stay in Lebanon “without time limits”, whereas Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyyed Abbas Araghchi has said today that a “complete halt” to Israeli attacks in Lebanon is required. Under the deal, the US blockade of Iranian ports will be removed, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to finally reopen. On Truth Social, Trump posted “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” According to Trump the strait will reopen when the deal is signed on Friday. However, it could take weeks or months for mines to be cleared and damaged gas facilities to be repaired and transit to return to normal.

Oil prices tumbled after the announcement, falling to around $80 a barrel at the time of writing today. Asian markets reacted positively, with Japan’s leading index up nearly 5% when it closed.

SpaceX completes largest IPO in history

Elon Musk effectively became the world’s first trillionaire on Friday after SpaceX landed on the stock market and exceeded its estimated listing price by 18%. Musk’s majority ownership of class B shares also now means he’ll control over 85% of shareholder voting power. The float is expected to create 4,000 new millionaires among SpaceX’s current and former employees. Normally, early investors and employees would have to wait 180 days before selling their shares; however, they can gradually start selling (initially up to 20%) once SpaceX’s Q2 earnings get released in late July or early August. SpaceX’s valuation finished trading at $2.1tn. Widening operating losses and the AI division’s huge capital expenditure didn’t put off investors. Demand was reportedly four times oversubscribed, leading Senator Elizabeth Warren to call for the IPO to be delayed over “inaccurate or misleading accounting or valuation.”

One of the next AI-related IPO-listing firms, Anthropic, suffered a setback on Friday when its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models were suspended for non-US citizens over security concerns. The ruling by the US Department for Commerce forced Anthropic to disable both models. The company said they think “the government believes it has become aware of a method of bypassing or jail breaking Fable 5”. Reports this weekend suggest rivals at Amazon tipped off the state department about the potential to bypass Fable 5’s safety and security restrictions.

UK economy contracts

The latest release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy contracted by 0.1% in April, its first contraction since August 2025. Rising energy costs caused by the conflict in the Middle East were the main downward driver as the services and construction sectors both fell. The contraction will increase the likelihood of the Bank of England keeping interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

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Weekly Espresso

Peter Wasko — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 14:14:47 +0000

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Trump to meet AI leaders to discuss government stakes

US President Donald Trump is set to meet leaders of major AI companies this week to discuss the US government investing and becoming a stakeholder. Former Democratic leadership candidate, Bernie Sanders, has been on the road in the last few weeks proposing a government run wealth fund which would take a 50% stake in major AI companies, and Trump didn’t completely dismiss Sanders’ plan when asked, “Where economics are concerned, we have things that aren’t that far apart.” Trump’s comments come as Elon Musk’s SpaceX kick off the AI-IPOs on Friday. SpaceX has set a valuation target of $1.75tn. The company is trying to raise $75bn, nearly three times the amount raised by Saudi Aramco in 2019. On Monday, Anthropic, the owners of Claude AI, filed for their IPO valuing the company at more than $1tn.

OPEC monthly report

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) is due this weekend. It’ll shed more light on oil demand and supplies now the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 100 days. With the world burning through 8.7 million barrels of oil a day from global stockpiles, last week, various senior oil executives issued warnings about oil prices and inventories, with ExxonMobil’s Senior Vice President Niel Chapman stating, “We’re approaching unheard of [low] inventory levels.” US crude oil inventories sat at 1.57 billion barrels at the end of May, their lowest level in 22 years.

Last week:

Tech stocks have worst day since Liberation Day

The US tech index fell by more than 4% on Friday as it suffered its worst sell-off since Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement in April 2025. Surprisingly strong US jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics kick started the fall. The latest report from the Bureau showed the US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well ahead of the initial 80,000 estimate. They also revised April’s number upwards from 115,000 to 179,000. The positive numbers mean it’s more likely the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, which might have encouraged investors to flee from AI and tech to safer investments. Healthcare, utilities and consumer staples all saw a boost but with AI-related stocks now accounting for nearly half of the US’s leading index, it wasn’t enough to counter the overall decline.

The sell-off hit leading markets in Asia today. South Korea’s leading index was forced to halt trading for 20 minutes after it plunged 9% when it opened.

UN and OECD issue warnings

On Wednesday, the UN released a new report on the environmental cost of AI energy use. The report estimates that data centres consumed 448 terawatts-hours of electricity in 2025 with AI-related workloads accounting for 20% of this demand. They estimate this is set to skyrocket to 945 terawatt-hours by 2030. To put this in perspective, the world’s fifth largest electricity consumer, Japan, uses 913 terawatt-hours annually. Data centre water usage is estimated to reach 9.3 trillion litres a year by 2030, enough to meet the drinking needs of everyone on the planet for roughly 1.6 years.

In their latest quarterly update, the OECD cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast down from 2.9% to 2.8%, warning that rising energy prices, geopolitical tensions and inflation will hit the developing world particularly hard and could push several countries into recession.

Trade Department announces new tariffs

The US Trade Department announced new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on 60 trading partners, including the UK, EU, Canada and China. They’re attempting to use alleged forced labour failures in the latest attempt to revive Trump’s tariff policy. US trade representative, Jamieson Greer said, “The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods with forced labour is unacceptable” and creates an “unlevel playing field” which these tariffs would supposedly rectify.

The new tariffs can’t be blocked by Congress and could be implemented in July, subject to comments and review, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

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Weekly Espresso

Peter Wasko — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 15:16:31 +0000

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Federal Reserve Beige Book – Wednesday

The Federal Reserve will release its next Beige Book on Wednesday. Published eight times a year, April’s edition showed mixed growth due to price pressures. With the conflict in Iran dragging on and continuing to inflate energy prices it’s likely we’ll see more murky economic conditions.

Andrew Bailey speaks – Tuesday and Thursday

The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, will speak twice this week. On Friday, in his speech delivered at the Reykjavik 2026 Economic Conference, he said the bank will continue to take a wait-and-see approach over whether the Iran war could trigger interest rate hikes.

Last week:

Ceasefire extension with Trump

Reports that the US and Iran were progressing towards another ceasefire extension pushed oil prices lower and buoyed US markets last week. If signed off by President Trump, the tentative agreement will extend the ceasefire by 60 days and start talks over Iran’s nuclear programme.

However, peace deal optimism took some blows over the weekend following US strikes on radar sites in Iran and Iranian missile attacks on Kuwait. Israel also stepped up their activities in Lebanon, capturing the Beaufort Castle. Today, Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed Israeli forces to bomb southern parts of Beirut. Any deal between the US and Iran will be contingent on Israel ending the fighting in Lebanon. Oil prices have risen 3.5% at the time of writing. The conflict had a major impact on the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers which showed inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, its highest level since May 2023. Energy costs shot up 17.9% with gasoline up 28.4% and fuel oil up 54.3%.

Japan and Korean markets continue to surge

Leading Asian markets surged again last week. Japan’s largest index rose more than 3% taking it to new highs. South Korea’s major index is now up 100% in 2026, with technology companies Micron Technology, SK Hynix and Samsung leading the way thanks to their positions in the AI supply chain. Playing a key role in the AI supply chain has helped Japan and Korea counter the disruption caused by the conflict in Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Other South Asian countries like Singapore and Malaysia are also benefiting. They’ve seen exports of electronic goods sharply rise in the last 12 months by 46.4% and 66.7% respectively.

The AI boom is also dominating US market growth again, sending the US information technology sector up 17% in May. To put this in perspective, US materials, industrials, communication services, financials, consumer staples, utilities and energy sectors all fell between-0.01% and -4.80% during the same period.

UK markets down and Milburn interim report released

Falling house prices and energy price concerns dragged our home market down last week. According to Nationwide, average house prices fell 0.6% in May as demand was hit by the prospect of interest rate rises triggered by the war in Iran.

Recently we looked at the latest concerning UK unemployment numbers, which showed 13.5% of young people are not in employment, education or training (Neet). Following on from this, on Wednesday we saw the release of the independent interim report led by former minister Alan Milburn on young people and work. The report found that work opportunities for young people are “shrinking” at an alarming rate with one in six set to be Neet within the next five years. One million Neet young people is estimated to be currently costing the UK economy £125bn a year. The report blames the situation on the Covid pandemic, smartphones and the sharp decline in entry-level and hospitality jobs, and states that there is no evidence of a link between migration and youth unemployment.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

The post Weekly Espresso appeared first on Copia Capital.

Weekly Espresso

Peter Wasko — Tue, 26 May 2026 14:59:48 +0000

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

US GDP and inflation data – Thursday

Analysts will be keeping a keen eye on US GDP and inflation numbers on Thursday. Increases in defence and security spending have kept the GDP forecast at 2%. Thursday’s update to the PCE index will be being studied closely by the Federal Reserve in advance of their next meeting in three weeks’ time.

Peace talks in Qatar

Iranian and US delegates are set to begin new peace talks in Qatar. Despite the impending negotiations, US forces have launched strikes in Southern Iran targeting missile launch sites and mine-laying boats. The talks will aim to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reach another 60-day ceasefire agreement that also covers Lebanon, and set up further discussions over Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme.

Last week:

US markets break more records despite worries about the economy

Major US markets closed last week at an all-time high thanks to optimism around a peace deal between the US and Iran and more AI enthusiasm. Markets once again seemed immune from broader concerns about the US economy as 30-year Treasury bond yields climbed to their highest level in 19 years, and the minutes from the last Fed meeting highlighted growing concerns around inflation.

The world’s most valuable company, Nvidia, posted stronger than expected earnings on Wednesday. Data centre revenue nearly doubled for the period and revenue beat expectations. CEO Jensen Huang called it “an extraordinary quarter” and said that “demand has gone parabolic” due to the arrival of Agentic AI. However, the record-breaking quarter wasn’t enough for investors. Nvidia’s share price fell during after-hours trading amid concerns about the evolving data centre landscape and major tech firms starting to develop their own chips.

In other AI news, Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, and its CEO, Sam Altman, was thrown out of court last Monday. Musk had accused Altman of deception when he moved OpenAI from a non-profit to a for-profit company. The jury decided that Musk had waited too long to file his case, leaving his claims expired.

UK unemployment rises while vacancies shrink

UK unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5% between January and March. According to ONS director of economic statistics, Liz Mckeown, hospitality and retail sectors “have seen some of the largest falls in vacancies and payroll numbers”.

Job vacancies fell by 28,000 to 705,000 taking vacancies to a five-year low. Firms have been citing economic and geopolitical uncertainty as reasons for halting recruitment. The fall in graduate jobs has continued this year. The jobs platform Adzuna recently estimated there has been a 35% fall in vacancies in the last 12 months. All this has hit younger workers particularly hard, with the youth unemployment rate now at 14.7%, its highest level since 2014.

Japan GDP and inflation data

Japan’s GDP results surpassed analysts’ expectations, posting a 2.1% expansion in Q1, thanks to higher consumption and export numbers. Export growth was helped by a 29.3% increase in semiconductor equipment sales.

Inflation also eased more than expected, down to its lowest level since March 2022. Government action and subsidies in response to the Iran war, saw energy prices fall 3.9% in April.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

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Seven years of Copia – “Being part of this journey, from the early days to where we are now, has been incredibly rewarding.”

Marina Contato — Thu, 21 May 2026 09:40:49 +0000

Having just passed her seven year anniversary with Copia, we asked our Head of Operations, Marina Contato to take some time out of her busy day to reflect on her time with us.

Going back seven years – how did you start working at Copia? What were you doing before?

In 2016, I moved to London after my husband was transferred from his job in Brazil to the office here. Once we settled in, I spent some time studying English and getting used to life in a new country, which was an adventure on its own.

After that, I resumed my career in financial services, joining the South Korean firm Mirae Asset Global Investments, where I was responsible for trade settlement and reconciliations. Then, in April 2019, I joined Copia.

What was Copia like when you started and how has the business changed?

Copia has changed a lot over the last seven years. When I first joined, the team was made up of just five people. As the business grew and we welcomed more clients each year, the team naturally expanded as well. Over time, we hired more portfolio managers and analysts and built a dedicated Copia Sales team.

It’s been fantastic to see the company grow organically, improve the service we provide to existing clients, attract new ones, and expand our product range along the way.

What does your typical day look like now?

When I joined Copia, I started on the investment side of the business, where my days followed a more structured routine. However, since moving into Operations in 2022, I can honestly say there is no such thing as a “typical day”.

Each day is different and usually involves a mix of overseeing operational processes, managing our platforms and technology providers, supporting the Investment and Compliance teams, and leading internal operational projects. It definitely keeps things interesting!

What aspect of your time here are you most proud of?

I believe that being able to contribute to Copia’s overall growth is what makes me most proud. Being part of this journey, from the early days to where we are now, has been incredibly rewarding.

If you weren’t working for Copia would do you think you’d be doing instead?

Travelling around the world and being a travel blogger sounds like a pretty good alternative career to me!

Have you got any tips for people who’ve just started working in the financial services sector?

Be curious and always be willing to learn. Invest in your communication skills, build your network, and – most importantly – be a nice person to everyone. It really does make a difference!

Away from work, what’s your ethos when it comes to money and looking after your finances?

I’ve always believed that managing money is ultimately about balance – planning for the future while still enjoying the present. For me, it’s less about chasing short‑term gains and more about being consistent and disciplined.

I try to keep things simple: spend consciously, save regularly, and invest with a long‑term mindset. It’s about staying calm through market ups and downs and focusing on the bigger picture rather than short‑term noise.

What’s worth spending more money on?

I would say experiences, especially travel. Travel gives you a different perspective, helps you adapt to new situations, and creates memories that last much longer than material purchases.

And I also believe it’s worth spending a bit more on things that genuinely improve your daily life, whether that’s comfort, quality, or something that saves you time.

The post Seven years of Copia – “Being part of this journey, from the early days to where we are now, has been incredibly rewarding.” appeared first on Copia Capital.

Weekly Espresso

Peter Wasko — Mon, 18 May 2026 14:17:07 +0000

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Japan GDP and inflation data – Tuesday & Friday

The Japanese Cabinet Office is due to release Japan’s Q1 GDP data on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting to see a moderate rise largely thanks to AI sector driven growth. The impact of the energy shock caused by the war in Iran is more likely to be visible in Japan’s inflation numbers when published on Friday. Higher energy costs are expected to push up the overall inflation number although energy subsidies and the release of oil reserves should mean the impact is less significant than in other parts of Asia.

International Research Forum on Monetary Policy 2026 – Monday & Tuesday

Members of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve will meet this week in Frankfurt at the 14^th edition of the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy. This year’s programme includes talks on oil shocks, fiscal policy and inflation, and wealth redistribution. This year’s keynote speech is being delivered by Italian economist Giancarlo Corsetti. He’ll be focusing on trade wars, exchange rates and monetary policy.

Last week:

US-China summit

President Trump took an entourage of top US CEOs to Beijing for the latest US-China summit. In his opening night speech at the state banquet, Trump heralded basketball and the popularity of Chinese takeaways as demonstrations of America’s deep ties to China. In quite a stark contrast, President Xi referred to the “Thucydides Trap” to issue a warning to the US about what can go wrong when an established power feels threatened by a rising power.

Trump left Beijing claiming he’d struck “fantastic trade deals, great for both countries” but no breakthroughs or business deals were officially announced. The current trade war truce that was sparked by last year’s Liberation Day tariffs is set to expire in November. President Xi is expected to visit Washington for another summit in September. How much help China has promised to provide regarding the situation in Iran is unclear, however Trump said on Friday that he will consider lifting the sanctions on Chinese firms that purchase Iranian oil.

Markets fall on Friday

Following a record-setting few days for US markets, most major indexes fell on Friday. Concerns over rising bond yields across the globe, a tech selloff, high US inflation data and elevated oil prices may all have had an impact.

30-year bond yields in the US hit their highest level in 12 months, and the UK and Japanese equivalents reached their highest levels since the late nineties. Here in the UK, concerns over the leadership of the Labour Party pushed our home bond markets (Gilts) and the pound down, and the yields on those Gilts up.

The shrinking likelihood of US Fed interest rate cuts and profit-taking caused much of the tech selloff on Friday. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April showed inflation rose 3.8% annually, the highest jump for three years. The annual rate was 0.1% ahead of expectations. Energy price rises accounted for more than 40% of the gain. The report also showed that average US hourly wages have fallen 0.3% in the last year. Kevin Warsh’s role as Fed Chair was also confirmed by the US senate last week, but with inflation going in the wrong direction it’s looking increasingly unlikely that he’ll be able to cut interest rates anytime soon.

Last night, in amongst a batch of posts containing AI-generated images, including one of himself and a topless alien, Trump took to Truth Social to threaten Iran again, “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” In response, oil prices rose again this morning hitting Asian markets when they opened.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

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Cappuccino Commentary

Peter Wasko — Thu, 14 May 2026 14:58:04 +0000

April 2026 Review

The conflict in Iran continued to dominate global financial markets in April. Right after Easter, President Trump threatened “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz couldn’t be reached. Thankfully he backed down and started the ceasefire that is still going on today, kicking off a reasonable month for markets. Despite the ceasefire, tensions between the US and Iran continue to make headlines, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining severely disrupted. An estimated 20,000 seafarers are stranded on board 2,000 ships in the Strait. Oil prices maintained their place above $100 a barrel, creating significant uncertainty around economic growth and inflation. For more details, see my colleague Richard’s recent article for FT Adviser on the situation in Iran and its impact on markets, energy independence and inflation.

Most equity asset classes were negatively impacted in March, however they recovered significantly in April, and most regions are now positive over the last three months. Within developed markets, US led returns generating gains of 4.8% followed by Japan (3.7%) and the UK (1.6%). Europe is the only developed market to lag over the last three months, falling -0.7%. Emerging Markets and Asia also performed well with gains of 7% and 3.2% respectively. Renewed AI optimism helped Japanese and South Korean markets excel thanks to their respective dominance in the semiconductor and memory chip industries.

The Magnificent 7 firms, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft all exceeded earnings expectations with their cloud computing units benefitting from the intense demand for AI infrastructure. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek showed a preview of their new model later in the month but, despite it being much cheaper and easier to optimise than its US counterparts, US tech markets were spared the type of hit they took when DeepSeek first launched in January 2025.

April was a good month for US company earnings, with 84% of reporting firms beating estimates. Major US banks posted strong numbers as the volatility caused by the Iran conflict significantly increased client trades. On a less economically cheery note, towards the end of the month US public debt ($31.27tn) surpassed annual US GDP ($31.22tn) for the first time since the Second World War.

As expected, all major central banks opted to hold interest rates. Jerome Powell led a Fed Committee meeting for what is likely to be the last time, with Kevin Warsh set to take over this month. Powell announced he’ll remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors until investigations against him and the Fed are “truly over”. Most bond indices finished the period lower.

Government bond yields moved higher (as bond prices fell) on concerns that the recent surge in oil prices would feed into higher inflation. This was particularly acute in the UK where expectations shifted from interest rate cuts (prior to the Iran conflict) to expectations of a potential rate hikes. The UK’s reliance on imported energy may potentially amplify the inflationary impacts of higher energy prices and as a result Gilts fell -1.8% over the last three months. The turmoil caused by the local election results last week has sent bond yields to a 28-year high. Though short- dated, investment grade bonds did manage to generate modest gains in April.

Alternative assets had a mixed month. Oil prices have risen sharply since the conflict started, and day to day price movements remain extremely volatile given the uncertainty around peace negotiations. Infrastructure stocks performed well over the period as demand for energy and other projects continues to increase. Precious metal saw a sharp reversal from its record highs, and we’ve seen some volatility in property markets as interest rate expectations fluctuate.

Needless to say, the conflict in Iran has increased market uncertainty and remains a fluid situation. History suggests that markets often stabilise once the initial uncertainty begins to fade. This pattern was visible following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and during earlier conflicts such as the Iraq and Gulf wars. While initial reactions were often significant, markets typically recovered as the situation became clearer. From our perspective, we’ll keep banging the same drum: avoid making kneejerk decisions and focus on diversification to help weather volatility.

Please note:

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