The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Nvidia Q2 earnings – Wednesday 

The world’s largest company by market cap, Nvidia, will round off the summer’s tech and AI-related earning reports on Wednesday. 

Analysts are expecting Nvidia to report a 96% year-on-year increase in revenue and more gains in Q2 than Q1.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

Following all the recent drama in bond markets, all eyes will be on US Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, when he delivers his first keynote speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.

After sending confusing signals during his first press conference as Fed Chair in July, bond traders will be looking for Warsh to provide clearer details on how he plans to deal with inflation.

Last week:

K-shaped economy leads Walmart Woes

Last week’s CPI release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed annual US inflation cooled to 3.4% taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The odds of a rate hike at the next meeting in September have fallen to 42%.

On the subject of the war, the 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran has now expired.  Negotiations showed few signs of progress last week. Trump threatened to bomb Oman if Omani officials agree a deal with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. This week, the US government is set to lay out a programme of new sanctions against Iran it has dubbed “economic D-Day.” Iran have threatened an “earthquake-like” retaliation if they go ahead.

US debt hits $4tn as bond yields reach twenty year high

Last week, US national debt reached the $40tn milestone sooner than expected. Heavy spending under the Trump and Biden administrations, Trump’s tax cuts and spiralling interest costs have caused the debt level to more than double in just 10 years.

Serious concerns about the health of the US economy, the impact the rising cost of bonds could have on the debt-laden AI industry, and inflation sent yields on 30-year US treasuries to 5.34% on Tuesday, their highest level in 20 years. The Treasury Department announced on Wednesday that it will increase the next round of bond buybacks from $2bn to $4bn, helping to ease yields and bring them back down to 5.18%.

Trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed on Friday. A new 50% US tariff will be placed on a range of Canadian goods from 8 September 2026. Trump claimed Canada “wants the benefits of being a state without being one”. Canadian PM Mark Carney called the tariffs a “miscalculation” and said they are designed to “hurt and divide us”. Carney confirmed Canada would reluctantly match Trump’s tariffs “dollar-for-dollar”.

UK markets outperform but jobs situation remains worrying 

Our home markets were some of the only to finish the week up as they outperformed major US, Asian and European markets thanks to a rebound in mining stocks and another rotation away from tech into more defensive and traditional assets.  

There was less positive news concerning the UK jobs market. Unemployment stayed at 4.9% as vacancies fell to a five-year low. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) cited labour and operating costs as the main reason for smaller firms scaling back hiring.

According to recruitment specialist, Adzuna, UK graduate jobs have now tumbled to their lowest level since tracking began ten years ago. Only 8,373 roles for university leavers were advertised in July, that’s 45% less than this time last year, and a huge way off the 55,000 positions available in 2017. Teaching, travel and construction were the only sectors to add roles as more and more large employers hold back on hiring hoping that AI and automation will be able to fill the gaps.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

UK inflation and jobs data – Tuesday & Wednesday 

Increases in gas and electric bills, caused by the conflict in Iran and the Ofgem cap increase, are expected to push inflation up to 2.9% when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) release the inflation data for July on Wednesday. The anticipated increase follows the Chief Economist for the Bank of England, Huw Pill’s comments last week that the 0.4% GDP expansion in Q2 reinforces the case for higher borrowing costs to bring inflation down.

The ONS will release the latest UK jobs report tomorrow. It’s widely expected to show slow private sector hiring with employers sticking to a cautious low hire, low fire model.

US retail earnings – Tuesday to Thursday 

Some of America’s biggest retailers, including Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target and Walmart, release their Q2 earning reports this week. While high income household spending has been boosted by strong market performance, lower income households have seen their finances curtailed by rising gas prices and inflation. The latest retail reports will give another view on the health of US consumers and how K-shaped the US economy now is.

Last week:

US inflation cools but debt soars

Last week’s CPI release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed annual US inflation cooled to 3.4% taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The odds of a rate hike at the next meeting in September have fallen to 42%.

On Wednesday, the Treasury Department reported that the US budget deficit soared to its highest monthly level in more than five years. July’s shortfall totalled $432.3 billion, with Medicare, social security, interest payments on national debt the largest contributors. Tariff refunds also added $33bn as the cost of rebates continues to add up.

In a busy week for the Treasury Department, they repealed the requirement for US companies to report beneficial ownership information (BOI). US companies will no longer have to report information about individuals who own a 25% stake or have “substantial control” over the business.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the repeal gets rid of “a burdensome reporting requirement for millions of law-abiding business owners without compromising our national security.” Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren said the repeal was a “gift to cartels, criminals and US adversaries” and those who use “shell companies to move millions through our financial system.” The use of shell companies has been pivotal in the AI circular financing deals with data centre operations often set up under shell companies. It has allowed hyperscalers to offload risk and avoid recording the debt on official balance sheets. Expect the repeal to make this process even easier for US big tech.

Better than expected UK GDP growth

UK GDP rose 0.3% in June thanks to calmer energy prices, the World Cup and consistent sunshine. The better-than-expected growth has put us on course for the highest G7 growth in the first half of 2026. Alcohol makers, television producers and advertising firms also reported a World Cup boost.

However, Green Party thinktank Verdant updated their assessment of the heatwaves’ impact on the UK economy, estimating that the total cost of lost economic output was £4.4bn for June and July. If the intensity and frequency of heatwaves continue their current trajectory, Verdant suggest the annual economic cost could rise to more than £25bn by 2030.

Hong Kong tech index to nearly double

Hong Kong’s main tech index is planning to add 20 more companies taking the number of constituents to 50. The index is overhauling its tech themes to add AI and robotics as it tries to keep its representation up with the evolving tech landscape. Quantum computing, aerospace and satellite technology will also be added in the growing list of sub-themes. The changes are expected to come into place from the end of September. In the first half of 2026, IPOs listed in Hong Kong raised $21.5bn, more than double the same period in 2025.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

UK GDP data – Thursday 

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data on UK GDP will be released on Thursday. The Q2 report is expected to show that the economy expanded at a slightly slower pace of 0.4% compared to 0.6% in Q1. Higher energy costs caused by the conflict in Iran are largely responsible for the slowdown. 

US CPI data – Wednesday

Interest rate watchers will have a keen eye on this week’s US inflation data. Pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates cooled last week when jobs data showed the US labour market was weakening. The education sector lost 50,000 jobs and retail fell 19,000. If this week’s data shows price growth has accelerated again, expect the Fed to be back under pressure to hike rates soon as they try to navigate an increasingly complex situation around inflation and employment.

Last week:

Best week for tech since April

US markets bounced back last week, with their leading tech index up nearly 5% – its best week since April.

Optimism around the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz boosted markets in general. An array of strong quarterly earnings reports bought back some confidence in potential big tech profit growth. The highlight being a 93% quarterly revenue increase at Palantir which saw the stock surge 29.5% at the beginning of the week. 

However, not everyone is convinced. Famed Big Short investor, Michael Burry, said on Tuesday that “I continue to believe it is possible we are near a major top, and a 1987 type fall”. 1987’s Black Monday saw the US’s major index fall 20% in one day and caused worldwide losses of an estimated $1.71tn.

SpaceX crashes but lifts off again

Elon Musk’s SpaceX released their first earnings report since their IPO in June. Shares fell 9% Wednesday morning after investors baulked at their capex spending increasing more than six times to $18.3bn. Overall the firm made a loss of $2bn in the first six months of the year. The AI part of the business, where most of the capex is going, made a $1.2bn loss in the quarter.

However, the share price went through a two-day rally following the first post-IPO lock up expiration. Tradeable shares more than doubled but heavy insider selling failed to materialise last week. The rally sent the share price back to just below the initial IPO price for new investors.

Japan markets up, consumption tax cut plan approved 

Japanese markets made gains last week following the joint US and Japanese intervention to support the yen. Despite concerns about the country’s strained finances, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s plan to cut consumption tax on food was approved on Wednesday. The tax on food items will be slashed from 8% to 1% from April 2027. It’s the first time the tax has been lowered since it was introduced in 1989. The cut will incur a revenue shortfall of around 5tn yen ($31.7bn).

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

SpaceX results and insider shares unlock – Tuesday & Thursday 

It’s been a tough six weeks for SpaceX investors. The shares have nearly halved since their post-IPO peak. Elon Musk’s net worth has taken a $600bn hit in the same period.

The company will release their first results since the IPO on Tuesday. Pre-IPO investors and early backers will get their first chance to offload up to 20% of their holdings two days later. It’s looking likely that both will put more downward pressure on the stock.

US jobs data – Tuesday & Friday

The Federal Reserve and analysts will have a keen eye on US jobs data releases this week. Markets are now pricing in a 68% chance of a US rate hike in September, however an increase in jobless claims or a fall in job openings will scupper those expectations.

Last week:

US interest rates held

Following a 9-3 vote, the Federal Reserve held interest rates for the fifth time in a row on Wednesday.

With prices rising well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and the ongoing situation in Iran constantly muddying the inflation picture, the Fed has been coming under increasing pressure to raise rates.

During a tough press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s responded to questions over why the Fed didn’t hike rates saying, “we will deliver, we are focused like a laser on making sure we can do it, but the suggestion we are going to wave a magic wand is one I want to disabuse you and everyone else of.” Bond markets reacted badly to the news sending 30-year US treasury yields past 5.2% and their highest level in two decades.

Cloud revenue growth gives the tech index a breather

Last week we had another round of big tech results. Microsoft and Amazon both reported better-than-expected growth thanks to surging cloud revenue. Apple became only the second company to ever pass the $5tn valuation mark on Tuesday. However, they took hits on Thursday and Friday after their quarterly report forecasted softer Q4 growth.

Meta shares tumbled after they vowed to keep spending heavily on AI projects while profits continue to fall. They now plan to spend $130bn to $145bn on mainly AI-related projects this year. Their free cash flow of $784mn was the lowest it’s been in five years. Overall, the numbers from Amazon and Microsoft helped the US’s tech index end a two-week losing streak, finishing up 0.55%.

In other tech news, Nvidia spooked investors again after announcing more AI infrastructure deals full of circular funding, including a possible $250bn deal with OpenAI to guarantee financing for a new data centre in Ohio.

As the threat from China to US AI firms continues to grow, on Monday it emerged that an unnamed Chinese company has begun manufacturing a deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) machine, an important expansion to their home-grown semiconductor technology kit.

US propping up yen

This morning, Japanese and American officials confirmed they had jointly intervened to halt the yen’s slide after it dropped to a 40-year low.

Rumours of a possible intervention have been floating around for a while now. Japan have been the largest holders of US federal debt since 2019 and currently hold an estimated $1.1tn. The Americans will be hoping that their intervention will help avoid a situation where Japan dumps a large quantity of US treasuries to help prop up the yen. A weakening yen also has the potential to trigger a selloff in Japanese government bonds pushing up bond yields across the globe.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Federal Reserve meeting – Wednesday 

While holding rates is still expected, the chances of a rate hike at this week’s Federal Reserve meeting have increased in recent weeks. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices once again and the demand for AI infrastructure is only adding to the inflation problem in the US. US bond yields have been rising over inflation concerns, with the two-year yield (seen as the best indicator for future Fed interest rate policy) sitting above 4% since mid-May, indicating that bond markets anticipate a rate rise sometime this year.

Committees for the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also meet this week. Both are widely expected to keep rates unchanged.

Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple – Wednesday & Thursday

We’ve got more tech heavyweights reporting their quarterly results this week. Capital expenditure and revenue from AI activity will yet again be closely scrutinised by investors.

Last week:

Burnham gets some good news in week on as PM

New Prime Minister Andy Burnham received some positive economic data in his first week as PM. 10-year gilt yields eased to 5.07% on the back of news that retail sales rose 1% in June, beating expectations of a 0.3% decline. The World Cup and consistent sunshine helped contribute to the extra spending. Consumer confidence is now at a six-month high too. PMI data also showed UK business activity has returned to growth.

Counter to press expectations, Andy Burnham named John Healey as Chancellor. Healey resigned as Defence Secretary just six weeks ago in a row over military spending. UK defence stocks like Babcock and BAE surged on the news and the likelihood that Healey will increase defence spending from 2.7% to 3%.

Burnham announced an array of spending plans in week one as he tries to hit the ground running, including a pledge to end rough sleeping in England, cutting VAT from domestic electricity bills, a £2 cap on bus fares and a cut in business rates for pubs. This first set of pledges come in at just 0.1% of public spending. Burnham’s long-term aims to reform social care, expand council house building and raise the personal allowance will need to be set out in the budgets to come.

More problems for big tech

Big tech had another bad week as Alphabet and Tesla came under fire for their capex spending and questionable returns from AI investments.

Despite overall revenues increasing to $119.8bn (23% up on the same period last year) and Google Cloud revenue surging 82% year on year, Alphabet reported negative free cash flow (-$5.9bn) for the first time in more than a decade. Growing capex, pretty much of all which is being spent on AI-related projects and infrastructure, caused the negative turn, spooking investors and sending the share price down nearly 7%. Tesla also reported negative free cash flow of -$1.1bn as they continue to ramp up their spending. They plan to nearly treble their 2025 capex spend to $25bn. With major question marks lingering over when, if ever, Optimus robots or Robotaxis will generate returns, the latest report sent the share price tumbling 14.5% on Thursday.

In other worrying news regarding some US tech giants, research from Japanese finance newspaper, Nikkei Asia, found that Meta, Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet have a combined $1.65tn in AI investment debt that they’ve been keeping off their official balance sheets. These hidden liabilities have primarily been used to fund data centre build outs. While not technically illegal, the scale of the debt and the growing concerns about AI profitability will be concerning investors. To give the numbers some perspective: $1.65tn exceeds the $1.35tn in debt that they’ve been reporting on official balance sheets; Meta’s off-balance-sheet debt of $420bn is three times higher than its reported debt; and Oracle’s off-balance-sheet commitments have increased 30 fold in the last four years.

US Trade Department finds a workaround for Trump’s tariffs

Trump’s tariffs morphed into a different guise on Thursday. The US imposed new tariffs on 60 countries to replace the levies that had to expire on Friday following the Supreme Court’s ruling in February that they were imposed illegally using the Emergency Powers Act. The White House are using “failures” to tackle forced labour as justification for the latest tariffs. The 10% to 12.5% duties will cover 99.4% of US imports according to the Office of US Trade.

One of the goals of Trump’s tariff policies has been to reinvigorate American manufacturing, however the latest data shows that since his re-election the US has lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs. Over the same period his predecessor Joe Biden created 625,000 new jobs in the sector.

Oil breaks the $100 a barrel barrier again

The return to hostilities in Iran pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel after Yemen’s Houthis announced a “maritime embargo” against Saudi Arabia. The Houthis said they would close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the main Red Sea gateway for Saudi vessels. In response to the situation in Hormuz, more than 70% of Saudi exports have been diverted via the Red Sea with total petroleum volumes transiting through Bab al-Mandab reaching 7% of global output. Yesterday, the number of vessels passing through Bab al-Mandab fell to its lowest level in months with just 11 ships passing through.

Oil prices have however fallen today by as much as 9% after the US halted their attacks on Iran for a second night to give “talks some space”.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Burnham becomes PM – Today

We’ll get a better idea of Andy Burnham’s plans for growth during his speech today and should find out who will be in his cabinet, and perhaps most importantly, who will be Chancellor. Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood is the current favourite to replace Rachel Reeves.

Several AI and big tech firms reporting – Tuesday to Thursday 

Following a tumultuous period for the tech sector and AI sentiment, Alphabet, Intel, IBM and Tesla all report earnings this week. Capital expenditure, continued cloud revenue growth, and shifts in AI software spending will all be closely watched by analysts.

Last week:

Oil back above $90 a barrel

The price of brent crude oil surpassed $90 a barrel again after another week of fighting in the Middle East. Last night, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said “not a single drop” of oil or gas will get through the Strait of Hormuz if US attacks continue.

Vessels passing through the Strait dropped to just 13 last Wednesday and maritime traffic appears near another standstill. Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran are continuing despite the strikes from both sides, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei.

Another week, another tech selloff

US markets fell again while under pressure from the conflict in Iran and another week of tech selloffs.

Apple overtook Nvidia as the world’s most valuable company for the first time in a year on Thursday. Nvidia shares had fallen on the announcement from Chinese firm, Moonshot AI, which unveiled new models that narrow the performance gap with US systems at lower costs. Moonshot AI’s new Kimi model has been so popular the company has had to temporarily limit access to new users. Apple also launched legal action against OpenAI, suing the company for the theft of trade secrets by gaining insider information through hiring former Apple employees.

News from rivals in China also hit Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The share price took more damage after the Chinese Long March 10B rocket booster was filmed being caught by an offshore recovery platform, demonstrating a major stride in reusable rocket technology. SpaceX shares have now fallen below their original $135 IPO price, shedding $1tn off their market value since the post-IPO high.

Outside of tech, several US banks released record-breaking reporting numbers. An increase in investment banking fees, and fees earned from the SpaceX IPO helped JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs all exceed expectations. JPMorgan posted the highest quarterly profit ever by a US bank.

Selloff in Asia continues

Following the “black Monday sell-off” on Monday, Korea’s leading market bounced back in the middle of the week before tumbling again on Thursday and today. It’s still up 51.20% in 2026 but in the last month alone we’ve seen the market lose -28.51%. Tech heavyweights, Samsung and SK Hynix, continued to lead the decline. 

Japanese and Chinese markets also fell last week. Concerns about the valuations of AI firms combined with renewed conflict in Iran have dragged Japan’s main index down -6.24%. Despite the AI and rocket ship announcements, the tech sell-off crossed into China too sending their major indexes down between -2% and -3%.

UK markets exempt from selloff

Here in the UK, our home markets made small gains last week largely thanks our lack of AI-tech exposure. Higher oil prices provided a tailwind for energy giants like BP. Optimism around Andy Burnham’s potential housing policies also pushed up housebuilders like Persimmon plc.

The latest GDP data from the ONS showed the UK economy grew, as expected, by 0.1% in May. The biggest contributor to the growth was scientific research and development which was up 5.1%.

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.