Weekly Espresso

The final polls suggest the Democrats will have enough to comfortably flip control of Congress following Tuesday’s US midterm elections. They also have a narrow lead in many key Senate races. Trump has simply bypassed most checks and balances through executive orders over the last two years, but losing both houses will open a wave of subpoenas and investigative committees, potentially drowning Trump’s next two years in office in litigation and impeachment trials. It may also have repercussions for the AI boom by making it possible for Democrats to pass bills which limit data centre buildouts and impose new regulations on the frontier labs…

A troubling week for AI shares saw the US’s tech index tumble nearly 4.5% when markets closed on Friday.

Rising US inflation numbers helped trigger the Wednesday-to-Friday sell off. The final inflation numbers before the US midterms from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed inflation rose to 3.7% in September. The Producer Price Index (PPI) soared well above expectations to 6.3%, the largest increase since December 2022 and more than triple the Fed’s 2% target. Chances of a rate hike have increased on the back of the readings.

Problems in the neocloud sector (rentiers of GPU computing power and AI infrastructure) exacerbated the sell off at the centre of the AI trade…

On Tuesday, the US’s leading index achieved a record high despite the sell-off in bonds. Markets rallied in response to high earning expectations thanks to the trillions of dollars pouring into AI infrastructure. According to Factset, analysts are expecting Q3 earnings growth of 29.5%. Chipmakers Nvidia and Micron are expected to account for more than a third of that growth. Some of this bullishness was dented on Thursday after OpenAI told investors that revenue for this year will be $50bn, $20bn less than estimated in September.

With AI development and the race for superintelligence showing no signs of slowing down, OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman advocated for a light touch regulatory stance in an interview on Monday. He said that the world should just accept “some bad things happening” in exchange for the benefits AI may bring…

In his first conference speech as Labour party leader and Prime Minister, we got several important policy updates from Andy Burnham. From April 2030 the government will finally “rip the plaster off” and amend the pensions triple lock to not necessarily keep pace with workers’ earnings. Electoral reform is back on the agenda, and a new in-out EU referendum could be included in the next Labour election manifesto. Prior to the conference, the reboot of Help to Buy to become the Your First Home Scheme sent housebuilding stocks up on Monday.

The latest US-China summit went as expected with pageantry being prioritised over policies. The trade truce between the two nations was extended by two months and they agreed to establish a “communication channel” to report AI incidents before their next meeting in November.

While all the major AI moguls dined in the White House, markets reacted positively to the lack of guardrails around AI development despite a batch of new stories containing more examples of agents going off script and hacking government institutions, like the Australian healthcare database. The leading US tech index is now up 2.45% since former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon’s tweets on the existential threat from superintelligent AI went viral three weeks ago.

Taiwan, the soon-to-be-expiring trade truce and the global energy crisis might have to take a backseat to AI when Trump and Xi meet this week in Washington.

After a week of nonstop press coverage that has seen the existential threat from superintelligent AI enter the mainstream discourse, investors will be watching out for any agreements that allow for a mutual ‘slowdown’. On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a new AI safety notification mechanism has been proposed for the two leaders to consider during the summit. While it looks unlikely either Trump or Xi will be willing to put further guardrails in place, according to leaks this weekend, some senior officials in the Trump administration are frustrated about his refusal to take the subject seriously and will try to convince Trump to push for more oversight and international agreements with China…