Weekly Espresso

Investors drew a collective sigh of relief last night after Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a deal between the US and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East. Sharif said both sides had agreed to “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon”.

However, the situation in Lebanon could jeopardise the signing of the deal. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, says the IDF plans to stay in Lebanon “without time limits”, whereas Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi has said today that a “complete halt” to Israeli attacks in Lebanon is required. Under the deal…

US President Donald Trump is set to meet leaders of major AI companies this week to discuss the US government investing and becoming a stakeholder. Former Democrat leadership candidate, Bernie Sanders, has been on the road in the last few weeks proposing a government run wealth fund which would take a 50% stake in major AI companies, and Trump didn’t completely dismiss Sanders’ plan when asked, “Where economics are concerned, we have things that aren’t that far apart.” Trump’s comments come as Elon Musk’s SpaceX kick off the AI-IPOs on Friday. SpaceX has set a valuation target of $1.75tn. The company is trying to raise $75bn, nearly three times the amount raised by Saudi Aramco in 2019…

Reports that the US and Iran were progressing towards another ceasefire extension pushed oil prices lower and buoyed US markets last week. If signed off by President Trump, the tentative agreement will extend the ceasefire by 60 days and start talks over Iran’s nuclear programme.

However, peace deal optimism took some blows over the weekend following US strikes on radar sites in Iran and Iranian missile attacks on Kuwait. Israel also stepped up their activities in Lebanon, capturing the Beaufort Castle…

Major US markets closed last week at an all-time high thanks to optimism around a peace deal between the US and Iran and more AI enthusiasm. Markets once again seemed immune from broader concerns about the US economy as 30-year Treasury bond yields climbed to their highest level in 19 years, and the minutes from the last Fed meeting highlighted growing concerns around inflation.

The world’s most valuable company, Nvidia, posted stronger than expected earnings on Wednesday. Data centre revenue nearly doubled for the period and revenue beat expectations…

The Japanese Cabinet Office is due to release Japan’s Q1 GDP data on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting to see a moderate rise largely thanks to AI sector driven growth. The impact of the energy shock caused by the war in Iran is more likely to be visible in Japan’s inflation numbers when published on Friday. Higher energy costs are expected to push up the overall inflation number although energy subsidies and the release of oil reserves should mean the impact is less significant than in other parts of Asia…

All eyes continue to be on the conflict in Iran after President Trump called Iran’s reply to his proposed peace plan “totally unacceptable”. Earlier on last week Trump predicted that the war in Iran will be “over quickly” and said that most people understand his goal of ending Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium must be “taken out” before the war against Iran can be considered over. Trump had proposed that Iran permit shipping to pass through Hormuz while Washington ends its blockade of Iranian ports, with month-long nuclear talks to follow. Oil rose again on Monday following Trump’s social media posts.