The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Trump to meet AI leaders to discuss government stakes

US President Donald Trump is set to meet leaders of major AI companies this week to discuss the US government investing and becoming a stakeholder. Former Democratic leadership candidate, Bernie Sanders, has been on the road in the last few weeks proposing a government run wealth fund which would take a 50% stake in major AI companies, and Trump didn’t completely dismiss Sanders’ plan when asked, “Where economics are concerned, we have things that aren’t that far apart.” Trump’s comments come as Elon Musk’s SpaceX kick off the AI-IPOs on Friday. SpaceX has set a valuation target of $1.75tn. The company is trying to raise $75bn, nearly three times the amount raised by Saudi Aramco in 2019. On Monday, Anthropic, the owners of Claude AI, filed for their IPO valuing the company at more than $1tn.

OPEC monthly report

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) is due this weekend. It’ll shed more light on oil demand and supplies now the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 100 days. With the world burning through 8.7 million barrels of oil a day from global stockpiles, last week, various senior oil executives issued warnings about oil prices and inventories, with ExxonMobil’s Senior Vice President Niel Chapman stating, “We’re approaching unheard of [low] inventory levels.” US crude oil inventories sat at 1.57 billion barrels at the end of May, their lowest level in 22 years.

Last week:

Tech stocks have worst day since Liberation Day

The US tech index fell by more than 4% on Friday as it suffered its worst sell-off since Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement in April 2025. Surprisingly strong US jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics kick started the fall. The latest report from the Bureau showed the US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well ahead of the initial 80,000 estimate. They also revised April’s number upwards from 115,000 to 179,000. The positive numbers mean it’s more likely the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, which might have encouraged investors to flee from AI and tech to safer investments. Healthcare, utilities and consumer staples all saw a boost but with AI-related stocks now accounting for nearly half of the US’s leading index, it wasn’t enough to counter the overall decline.

The sell-off hit leading markets in Asia today. South Korea’s leading index was forced to halt trading for 20 minutes after it plunged 9% when it opened. 

UN and OECD issue warnings

On Wednesday, the UN released a new report on the environmental cost of AI energy use. The report estimates that data centres consumed 448 terawatts-hours of electricity in 2025 with AI-related workloads accounting for 20% of this demand. They estimate this is set to skyrocket to 945 terawatt-hours by 2030. To put this in perspective, the world’s fifth largest electricity consumer, Japan, uses 913 terawatt-hours annually. Data centre water usage is estimated to reach 9.3 trillion litres a year by 2030, enough to meet the drinking needs of everyone on the planet for roughly 1.6 years.

In their latest quarterly update, the OECD cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast down from 2.9% to 2.8%, warning that rising energy prices, geopolitical tensions and inflation will hit the developing world particularly hard and could push several countries into recession.

Trade Department announces new tariffs

The US Trade Department announced new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on 60 trading partners, including the UK, EU, Canada and China. They’re attempting to use alleged forced labour failures in the latest attempt to revive Trump’s tariff policy. US trade representative, Jamieson Greer said, “The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods with forced labour is unacceptable” and creates an “unlevel playing field” which these tariffs would supposedly rectify.

The new tariffs can’t be blocked by Congress and could be implemented in July, subject to comments and review, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Federal Reserve Beige Book – Wednesday

The Federal Reserve will release its next Beige Book on Wednesday. Published eight times a year, April’s edition showed mixed growth due to price pressures. With the conflict in Iran dragging on and continuing to inflate energy prices it’s likely we’ll see more murky economic conditions.

Andrew Bailey speaks – Tuesday and Thursday

The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, will speak twice this week. On Friday, in his speech delivered at the Reykjavik 2026 Economic Conference, he said the bank will continue to take a wait-and-see approach over whether the Iran war could trigger interest rate hikes.

Last week:

Ceasefire extension with Trump

Reports that the US and Iran were progressing towards another ceasefire extension pushed oil prices lower and buoyed US markets last week. If signed off by President Trump, the tentative agreement will extend the ceasefire by 60 days and start talks over Iran’s nuclear programme.

However, peace deal optimism took some blows over the weekend following US strikes on radar sites in Iran and Iranian missile attacks on Kuwait. Israel also stepped up their activities in Lebanon, capturing the Beaufort Castle. Today, Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed Israeli forces to bomb southern parts of Beirut. Any deal between the US and Iran will be contingent on Israel ending the fighting in Lebanon. Oil prices have risen 3.5% at the time of writing. The conflict had a major impact on the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers which showed inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, its highest level since May 2023. Energy costs shot up 17.9% with gasoline up 28.4% and fuel oil up 54.3%.

Japan and Korean markets continue to surge

Leading Asian markets surged again last week. Japan’s largest index rose more than 3% taking it to new highs. South Korea’s major index is now up 100% in 2026, with technology companies Micron Technology, SK Hynix and Samsung leading the way thanks to their positions in the AI supply chain. Playing a key role in the AI supply chain has helped Japan and Korea counter the disruption caused by the conflict in Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Other South Asian countries like Singapore and Malaysia are also benefiting. They’ve seen exports of electronic goods sharply rise in the last 12 months by 46.4% and 66.7% respectively.

The AI boom is also dominating US market growth again, sending the US information technology sector up 17% in May. To put this in perspective, US materials, industrials, communication services, financials, consumer staples, utilities and energy sectors all fell between-0.01% and -4.80% during the same period.

UK markets down and Milburn interim report released

Falling house prices and energy price concerns dragged our home market down last week. According to Nationwide, average house prices fell 0.6% in May as demand was hit by the prospect of interest rate rises triggered by the war in Iran.

Recently we looked at the latest concerning UK unemployment numbers, which showed 13.5% of young people are not in employment, education or training (Neet). Following on from this, on Wednesday we saw the release of the independent interim report led by former minister Alan Milburn on young people and work. The report found that work opportunities for young people are “shrinking” at an alarming rate with one in six set to be Neet within the next five years. One million Neet young people is estimated to be currently costing the UK economy £125bn a year. The report blames the situation on the Covid pandemic, smartphones and the sharp decline in entry-level and hospitality jobs, and states that there is no evidence of a link between migration and youth unemployment.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

US GDP and inflation data – Thursday 

Analysts will be keeping a keen eye on US GDP and inflation numbers on Thursday. Increases in defence and security spending have kept the GDP forecast at 2%. Thursday’s update to the PCE index will be being studied closely by the Federal Reserve in advance of their next meeting in three weeks’ time.

Peace talks in Qatar

Iranian and US delegates are set to begin new peace talks in Qatar. Despite the impending negotiations, US forces have launched strikes in Southern Iran targeting missile launch sites and mine-laying boats. The talks will aim to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reach another 60-day ceasefire agreement that also covers Lebanon, and set up further discussions over Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme.

Last week:

US markets break more records despite worries about the economy

Major US markets closed last week at an all-time high thanks to optimism around a peace deal between the US and Iran and more AI enthusiasm. Markets once again seemed immune from broader concerns about the US economy as 30-year Treasury bond yields climbed to their highest level in 19 years, and the minutes from the last Fed meeting highlighted growing concerns around inflation.

The world’s most valuable company, Nvidia, posted stronger than expected earnings on Wednesday. Data centre revenue nearly doubled for the period and revenue beat expectations. CEO Jensen Huang called it “an extraordinary quarter” and said that “demand has gone parabolic” due to the arrival of Agentic AI. However, the record-breaking quarter wasn’t enough for investors. Nvidia’s share price fell during after-hours trading amid concerns about the evolving data centre landscape and major tech firms starting to develop their own chips.  

In other AI news, Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, and its CEO, Sam Altman, was thrown out of court last Monday. Musk had accused Altman of deception when he moved OpenAI from a non-profit to a for-profit company. The jury decided that Musk had waited too long to file his case, leaving his claims expired.

UK unemployment rises while vacancies shrink

UK unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5% between January and March. According to ONS director of economic statistics, Liz Mckeown, hospitality and retail sectors “have seen some of the largest falls in vacancies and payroll numbers”.

Job vacancies fell by 28,000 to 705,000 taking vacancies to a five-year low. Firms have been citing economic and geopolitical uncertainty as reasons for halting recruitment. The fall in graduate jobs has continued this year. The jobs platform Adzuna recently estimated there has been a 35% fall in vacancies in the last 12 months. All this has hit younger workers particularly hard, with the youth unemployment rate now at 14.7%, its highest level since 2014.

Japan GDP and inflation data

Japan’s GDP results surpassed analysts’ expectations, posting a 2.1% expansion in Q1, thanks to higher consumption and export numbers. Export growth was helped by a 29.3% increase in semiconductor equipment sales.

Inflation also eased more than expected, down to its lowest level since March 2022. Government action and subsidies in response to the Iran war, saw energy prices fall 3.9% in April.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Japan GDP and inflation data – Tuesday & Friday 

The Japanese Cabinet Office is due to release Japan’s Q1 GDP data on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting to see a moderate rise largely thanks to AI sector driven growth. The impact of the energy shock caused by the war in Iran is more likely to be visible in Japan’s inflation numbers when published on Friday. Higher energy costs are expected to push up the overall inflation number although energy subsidies and the release of oil reserves should mean the impact is less significant than in other parts of Asia. 

International Research Forum on Monetary Policy 2026 – Monday & Tuesday

Members of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve will meet this week in Frankfurt at the 14^th edition of the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy. This year’s programme includes talks on oil shocks, fiscal policy and inflation, and wealth redistribution. This year’s keynote speech is being delivered by Italian economist Giancarlo Corsetti. He’ll be focusing on trade wars, exchange rates and monetary policy.

Last week:

US-China summit

President Trump took an entourage of top US CEOs to Beijing for the latest US-China summit. In his opening night speech at the state banquet, Trump heralded basketball and the popularity of Chinese takeaways as demonstrations of America’s deep ties to China. In quite a stark contrast, President Xi referred to the “Thucydides Trap” to issue a warning to the US about what can go wrong when an established power feels threatened by a rising power.

Trump left Beijing claiming he’d struck “fantastic trade deals, great for both countries” but no breakthroughs or business deals were officially announced. The current trade war truce that was sparked by last year’s Liberation Day tariffs is set to expire in November. President Xi is expected to visit Washington for another summit in September. How much help China has promised to provide regarding the situation in Iran is unclear, however Trump said on Friday that he will consider lifting the sanctions on Chinese firms that purchase Iranian oil.

Markets fall on Friday

Following a record-setting few days for US markets, most major indexes fell on Friday. Concerns over rising bond yields across the globe, a tech selloff, high US inflation data and elevated oil prices may all have had an impact.

30-year bond yields in the US hit their highest level in 12 months, and the UK and Japanese equivalents reached their highest levels since the late nineties. Here in the UK, concerns over the leadership of the Labour Party pushed our home bond markets (Gilts) and the pound down, and the yields on those Gilts up.

The shrinking likelihood of US Fed interest rate cuts and profit-taking caused much of the tech selloff on Friday. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April showed inflation rose 3.8% annually, the highest jump for three years. The annual rate was 0.1% ahead of expectations. Energy price rises accounted for more than 40% of the gain. The report also showed that average US hourly wages have fallen 0.3% in the last year. Kevin Warsh’s role as Fed Chair was also confirmed by the US senate last week, but with inflation going in the wrong direction it’s looking increasingly unlikely that he’ll be able to cut interest rates anytime soon.

Last night, in amongst a batch of posts containing AI-generated images, including one of himself and a topless alien, Trump took to Truth Social to threaten Iran again, “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” In response, oil prices rose again this morning hitting Asian markets when they opened.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Trump peace proposal 

All eyes continue to be on the conflict in Iran after President Trump called Iran’s reply to his proposed peace plan “totally unacceptable”. Earlier on last week Trump predicted that the war in Iran will be “over quickly” and said that most people understand his goal of ending Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium must be “taken out” before the war against Iran can be considered over. Trump had proposed that Iran permit shipping to pass through Hormuz while Washington ends its blockade of Iranian ports, with month-long nuclear talks to follow. Oil rose again on Monday following Trump’s social media posts.

US CPI – Tuesday

US CPI inflation is forecasted to increase from 3.3% in March to 3.7% in April, with the conflict in the Middle East adding another layer of inflationary pressures on top of the tariff shock.

Trump visit to Beijing – Wednesday to Friday 

US and Chinese officials have reportedly intensified discussions to extend the current trade truce and explore potential agreements on agricultural purchases, AI safeguards, and supply chain resilience. A successful meeting between the two leaders this week could therefore provide an extra boost for Chinese equities, which have lagged their Asian peers even as regional markets rallied last month due to AI optimism and easing concerns over the Iran war.

Last week:

UK elections

Sir Kier Starmer has insisted he will carry on as prime minister despite a disastrous set of local election results for Labour which have seen his own MPs call for his resignation. Local election results showed Nigel Farage’s Reform UK making sweeping gains, while  Starmer’s Labour Party lost more than half the seats it was defending, fuelling political uncertainty. The turmoil has caused 30-year UK bond yields to rise to 5.81%, their highest level since July 1998.

US nonfarm payroll data 

Nonfarm payrolls in April increased for the second consecutive month, marking the strongest two-month period for nonfarm payroll increases since 2024. The US economy added 115,000 jobs, up from a forecast of 62,000, while last month’s initial print of 178,000 is now 185,000. Job gains in healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and retail were notable drivers. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. However, the percentage of people working or seeking work fell to the lowest level since October 2021.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Iran ceasefire under threat as tensions escalate

All eyes will be on the conflict in Iran after tensions escalated during the Bank Holiday weekend. Yesterday, President Trump announced operation “Project Freedom” in an attempt to help the hundreds of ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned Iran’s forces they would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attacked US ships. Countering, Iran threatened to strike any US navy ship approaching the Strait and claimed to have struck a US frigate with missiles. This weekend, the UAE accused Iran of firing missiles into the region for the first time since the ceasefire. The ceasefire is now in its fourth week. American military have had time to restock and refuel, and if a deal can’t be reached the situation could be set to escalate.

Complicating the situation further, on Saturday, Beijing ordered Chinese companies to defy US sanctions on private refiners linked to the Iranian oil trade. China purchased more than 80% of Iran’s oil exports in 2025. Ahead of Xi Jinping’s summit with Trump later this month, Beijing appears to be taking a more aggressive stance on trade and US investments. For example, last week they blocked Meta’s $2bn purchase of AI agent developer Manus. 

US payroll data – Wednesday 

US payroll numbers recovered in March, climbing by 178K. Another set of strong numbers this week, combined with rising inflation, would lower the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates this year.

Last week:

Interest rate decisions

As expected, the Bank of England, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and ECB all held interest rates last week. The Bank of England said further rate rises were likely due to the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and inflation. The Bank estimates average household gas and electric bills will rise from £1,641 to “close to £1,900” in July. They also think food inflation could rise to 4.6% by September.

Over in the US, Jerome Powell chaired the Fed Committee for the last time. During the press conference afterwards, he announced that he will remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors until the investigations against him and the Fed are “well and truly over, with transparency and finality”. 

Big tech contributes to best month of the year while US public debt exceeds GDP

Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft all demonstrated returns from their AI investments during their Q1 reports last week. Double digit gains were achieved in cloud computing units as the firms benefited from the intense demand for AI infrastructure. Palantir also reported sharp growth with US revenue up 133% as they try to make their AI Platform (AIP) the default option for US firms. The largely positive earnings reports from US firms have helped the largest US index record its best month since November. Meta, who don’t do cloud computing, failed to meet expectations and their plans to increase capital expenditure were met with alarm from investors. Though Meta CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, said the business was “on track to deliver personal super-intelligence to billions of people”. Meta, Microsoft and Amazon all announced or confirmed an array of layoffs as they continue to shrink their workforces.

AI spending helped US GDP rise to 2% during the first quarter of 2026. However, last week’s reading wasn’t enough to stop US public debt exceeding US annual GDP. On Thursday, the Committee for a Responsible Budget (CRFB) announced that US public debt has now reached $31.27tn, surpassing the country’s $31.22tn annual GDP. This is the first time US public debt has exceeded the size of its economy since World War Two. The nation’s gross debt, including money the federal government owes to itself, is approaching $39tn. The US is spending more servicing interest payments than it does funding defence or Medicare.  

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Interest rate decisions – Tuesday to Thursday

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will all hold meetings this week to make their latest decisions on interest rates. Across the board, no rate changes are widely expected. However, analysts and investors will have a firm eye on the statements and guidance to gauge the likelihood of rate changes later in the year and get a better grasp of the economic fallout from the conflict in Iran.

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting could be the last presided over by Jerome Powell. His likely successor, Kevin Warsh, faced some tough questioning from senators during his confirmation hearing last week. He denied Elizabeth Warren’s characterisation of him as President Trump’s “sock puppet” and said, “The president never once asked me to commit any particular interest rate decision, and nor would I ever agree to do so if he had”. Republican Senator Thom Tillis was still withholding his support due to the US Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell. On Friday, it was announced that the department had dropped the investigation, potentially clearing the way for Warsh.

Mag’ 7 earnings – Wednesday & Thursday

Five of the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies report their first quarter earnings this week. Aside from earnings, the reports will also provide updates about their massive AI spending plans.

Last week:

AI helps Asian and US markets defy war

On Tuesday, Trump indefinitely extended the US’s ceasefire with Iran. During the week, Iran seized two ships, and the US continued its blockade of Iranian ports, turning thirty ships back around. Oil prices rose steadily throughout the week. However, for some markets, like the week before, AI optimism outweighed energy concerns. Japanese and South Korean markets reached record highs today. Their dominance in the semiconductor and memory chip markets has largely been behind the recent tailwinds.

US markets have fully recovered from their major slump at the end of March. 28% of large US firms have now reported their Q1 earnings, so far 84% are beating estimates.

UK updates on inflation and unemployment, BoE warning

Without a meaningful UK presence in the AI industry, the lack of progress in Iran meant UK equity markets fell last week.

The latest UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed inflation rose as expected by 3.3% in March. The Iran war has caused the biggest jump in fuel prices for three years.

The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.9%. The fall was driven by an increase in the number of people not actively seeking work, including fewer students looking for work while studying. This meant the inactivity rate rose from 20.7% to 21%.

On Friday, the Bank of England (BoE) issued another warning about inflated stock market valuations. The bank’s Deputy Governor, Sarah Breeden warned, “There’s a lot of risk out there and yet asset prices are at all-time highs. We expect there will be an adjustment at some point.” She didn’t suggest when or by how much markets could fall but said she feared the impact of risks like private credit and the AI boom crystalising at the same time.

DeepSeek spares markets this time around

DeepSeek, the Chinese AI startup who shook up markets in January 2025, launched a preview of their new model on Friday. It didn’t disturb markets like it did last year (Nvidia actually finished the week at a record high), but the pricing is significantly cheaper than its American counterparts and it’s easier to optimise, raising questions for DeepSeek’s US rivals. That said, Tesla has announced that their capital expenditure plan for 2026 will treble in order to invest more in AI, robotaxis and robotics, and Meta will cut staff by 10% to compensate for already-announced increases in AI spending. We would expect market watchers to take a keen interest in the evolution of earnings from, and investment in, AI that will be announced by other “Magnificent Seven” companies later in the week.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Coming up this week:

Starmer addresses parliament about Mandelson vetting scandal – Monday

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is set to address MPs this afternoon over the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal. Starmer is under pressure following the news that the Foreign Office overruled Mandelson’s vetting failure so he could become British Ambassador to the United States in December 2024. Starmer says he was not informed of the Foreign Office’s decision.

Despite calls from opposition leaders for Starmer to resign, reports suggest it’s unlikely Labour MPs will also call for his resignation. Investors will be keeping an eye on today’s statement to gauge how long-lasting and impactful the current political turmoil might be. 

Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing – Tuesday

Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, will testify in front of the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. His nomination must be approved by a majority of the committee before a full Senate vote.

Powell’s term is set to end on 15 May 2026. Last week, Trump threatened to fire Powell if he doesn’t step aside at the end of his term. Powell is planning to remain in his post until Warsh is confirmed in the Senate. Several Republicans have said they will block Warsh’s appointment until the criminal investigation into Powell over the renovation of the Federal Reserve office is dropped. 

UK CPI (March) – Wednesday

On Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The data will provide an insight into the war in Iran’s impact on inflation here in the UK. The current forecast is for the annual CPI rate to increase from 3% to 3.3%.

Last week:

Positive week for markets as they ride the conflict wave

Broadly speaking, markets across the globe had a positive week following several optimistic updates about an end to the conflict in Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, President Trump said the war was “close to over” and that during a call with President Xi, China was very happy that he was “permanently opening” the strait.

However, after being briefly reopened on Friday, the shipping route was shut again Saturday evening. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) said it would stay closed until the US lifted its blockade on Iranian ports. Trump said the blockade will remain in place until a peace deal can be reached. Oil prices have risen in response to the closure. However, this morning Japanese markets haven’t fallen in tandem for a change as optimism around the AI sector has trumped concerns about the crisis in the Middle East.

A resolution still looks some way off. Iranian state media have reported that Iran are not planning to take part in another round of peace talks. Trump has again threatened to destroy power plants and bridges if a deal can’t be reached.

UK GDP better than expected

The latest GDP report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed UK GDP increased 0.5% in February. That’s higher than the 0.1% forecast. January’s flatlining figure was also revised upwards to 0.1%. Strong performances in services and manufacturing contributed heavily to the growth.

In contrast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth prospects for the UK due to the knock-on effects of the Iran war. The IMF estimates that UK GDP will rise by just 0.8% this year, down from the previous forecast of 1.3%. The 0.5% cut is bigger than the downgrades for the other G7 countries.

Big US banks break records

Market volatility, and its subsequent increase in client trades, helped several major US banks post record-breaking profit numbers last week. Collectively, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citi and Wells Fargo have taken in $47.4bn in profits in the first quarter of 2026

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Gains halted by blockade announcement

When markets reopened after Easter, the conflict in Iran was inevitably top of the agenda. On Tuesday, President Trump threatened “A whole civilisation will die tonight” if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz couldn’t be reached by his 8pm deadline. Thankfully, Trump backed down and agreed to a two-week ceasefire. 

Markets responded well to the news, sending US and European markets up, and pushing Japanese indexes up around 7% week on week. Due to their reliance on oil exports that come via the Middle East, Japan is particularly affected by Hormuz’s closure. Last week, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced another 20 days’ worth of oil from their national reserves will be released in May. On Tuesday, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said the impact of the current crisis on the oil market is “more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2022 together”.

Over the weekend, Vice President JD Vance led US peace talks with Iran. No agreement could be reached following twenty hours of negotiations. In response, Trump has announced that the US navy will start blockading the Strait of Hormuz from 2pm today. Around 100 tankers have gone through the Strait since the conflict started, paying Iran up to $2mn each time. A US blockade would mean no ships could pass through the Strait. Oil prices have surged on the back of the news, with Brent and Crude going above $100 dollars a barrel again. So far today, European and Asian markets have fallen in response, and US futures are trending downwards.

US CPI and GDP numbers

Seven weeks into the war in Iran, we’re starting to see its impact on US inflation. On Friday, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. The energy part of the index rose 10.9% in March. Gasoline increased 21.2% over the month, its largest monthly increase since the CPI was first published in 1967. Fuel oil increased 30.7%, its biggest monthly jump in 26 years. Overall, the energy index has increased 12.5% over the last twelve months.

US economic growth slowed more than expected in Q4 2025. The latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed GDP rose just 0.5%, down from the 0.7% forecast and a big drop off from the 4.4% growth seen in Q3. According to the BEA, increases in consumer spending and investment were offset by decreases in government spending and exports.

Coming up this week

Big US banks release earnings – Monday to Wednesday

Major US banks including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America all release their Q1 earning reports this week. Their results may give more information about how the ongoing conflict in Iran is impacting the US economy. Following last week’s high inflation numbers, investors will be watching for changes in trading activity and what mergers and acquisitions are being lined up or postponed. They’ll also have an eye on any results related to the banks’ private credit arms due to concerns around weak lending standards and the AI investment boom.

US PPI (March) – Tuesday

Following last week’s CPI data, the US BLS will publish the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) tomorrow. Whereas the CPI measures inflation from the consumer’s perspective, the PPI measures it based on the money received by domestic producers and sellers. The current forecast is for the index to rise from 3.4% to 4.6%.

UK GDP – Thursday

The latest GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are set to be released on Thursday. Last time around, the ONS numbers showed the UK economy unexpectedly flatlined to 0% growth in January. With analysts expecting growth of 0.2%, we saw the pound fall and bond yields rise on the back of it. Forecasters are expecting 0.1% growth this time around.

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

Markets bounce into week six of the war

Last Monday, President Trump sent US markets down after he threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power stations and water plants if they didn’t “shortly” agree to peace terms. Optimism that Trump was trying to wind down the war gave markets a lift on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the S&P 500 ultimately soaring 6% and ending a five-week losing streak. Trump’s prime time address on Wednesday evening failed to reassure investors and markets took a hit when they opened on Thursday. However, by the close of play, US indexes recovered and finished just below Wednesday’s peak as we went into the Easter weekend.

Six weeks into the war, as last week demonstrates, the conflict and Trump’s rhetoric continue to mould global markets. With the Iranians only allowing a limited number of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas have hit a four-year high and fertiliser prices are up 30% in the US. Global shipping operations have started relying more on alternative routes, including Cape diversions and Red Sea corridors. Maritime operations are having to face up to the fact that, even if the conflict ends in the near future, Hormuz’s commercial shipping activities will not go back to normal anytime soon.

On Easter Sunday, Trump took to Truth Social to repeat his threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure. He set a new deadline for 8pm today to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and has since said he “is not at all” worried about his potential actions being considered war crimes. S&P futures held up despite Trump’s violent language, and Asian and European markets are up slightly this morning. The chances of a solution being reached by 8pm look low. This is the fifth deadline Trump has given the Iranians since the war started. According to the US Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA), 3,540 people have been killed in Iran so far, including 1,616 civilians.

Blue Owl caps withdrawals as private credit worries grow

On Friday, private credit investment firm, Blue Owl Capital, imposed a 5% quarterly cap on investor withdrawals as they try to deal with a surge in redemption requests. Filings released on Thursday showed between January and March, investors asked to withdraw 21.9% from their Credit Income Corp fund and 40.7% from their tech lending fund, Blue Owl Technology Income Corp.

The surge comes after growing concerns over weak lending standards in the private credit industry and worries about its AI spending boom exposure. Other private credit firms like Ares Management, Apollo Global, Blackstone and the private credit arms of banks like Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs have also placed caps on redemptions in recent months.

OpenAI closes record-breaking funding round

OpenAI closed its latest funding round on Tuesday, raising a record-breaking $122bn of committed capital, leaving the company valued at $852bn. Despite ChatGPT having more than 900 million weekly users the company is a long way off being profitable. OpenAI made $13.1bn in revenue last year. They said on Tuesday that they’re currently generating $2bn in revenue a month in 2026. Veteran investor and hedge fund founder, George Noble, recently estimated that OpenAI needs to generate an annual revenue of $200bn by 2030 to meet their spending projections. OpenAI has started cutting spending plans and closing unprofitable features like the AI video app Sora as they gear up for their likely IPO later this year.

Trump appointed the CEOs of various tech giants to the President’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Oracle’s Larry Ellison, were all included in the initial batch of 13 members. The council will help lead the US’s strategic plans in the ongoing AI race with China.

Ellison’s Oracle laid off 30,000 employees across the globe on Wednesday. Despite revenues increasing 22% in the last quarter, Oracle decided to cut 18% of their workforce to help fund more AI infrastructure projects. The firm raised $50bn in debt and equity in January, and analysts estimate the layoffs could free up a further $10bn in free cash.