Cappuccino Commentary

Global stocks broadly rose in August on the back of stronger corporate earnings across regions. Notably, technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) related stocks rallied after experiencing a sharp sell-off in July. Surging cloud revenues helped Microsoft and Amazon report better-than-expected growth, and chip giant Nivida posted record- breaking quarterly revenues of $96bn, more than double what they generated in the same period last year.

The tech sector experienced some meaningful swings as investors grapple over whether the large capital expenditure that has been poured into these businesses will ultimately pay off in terms of the revenue it is expected to generate…

July saw a real shift in investors’ focus across equity markets and regions. The month was marked by a sharp sell-off in technology and AI-related stocks. The sell off begun in Asian where semiconductor stocks tumbled over rising concerns about competition and the potential impact soaring RAM prices might have on the appetite for AI. Chinese firm, Moonshot AI, unveiled new models that narrow the performance gap with US systems at significantly lower costs. According to OpenRouter, Chinese models made up 46% of all token usage by US companies at the start of July, raising further question marks over the long-term prospects for American LLMs and the investments being made by big tech…

Market returns were mixed in June as investors navigated a complex environment combining de-escalation in the Middle East with uncertainty over the future of AI spending. Tensions between the US and Iran eased following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which put a pause on the conflict and helped reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While a positive development, markets responded cautiously, with the flow of oil tankers remining significantly below pre-war norms…

In spite of the conflict in the Middle East, equity markets and risk assets delivered strong returns. The mood music seemed to be that a resolution was strongly favoured by both sides, but the conflict continued to roll on past its 100-day anniversary. Outside of this, markets were generally buoyed by the euphoria around artificial intelligence (AI) investments coupled with some strong fundamental earnings from many corporates in the US. “Magnificent Seven” firms, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft all demonstrated returns from their AI investments as their computing units benefited from the intense demand for AI infrastructure…

The conflict in Iran continued to dominate global financial markets in April. Right after Easter, President Trump threatened “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz couldn’t be reached. Thankfully he backed down and started the ceasefire that is still going on today, kicking off a reasonable month for markets…

Over the past month, the escalation of the Middle East conflict has dominated global financial markets. On the last day of February, the US, in coordination with Israel, launched a series of airstrikes and military operations targeting Iranian government and military facilities, including the assassination of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s response was swift and included military retaliation across the region against Israel and several other Gulf states. As of the time of writing, there has not been a conclusive resolution to the conflict, and this has resulted in major disruptions to shipping through the Gulf and a sharp increase in energy prices…