Cappuccino Commentary

The conflict in Iran continued to dominate global financial markets in April. Right after Easter, President Trump threatened “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz couldn’t be reached. Thankfully he backed down and started the ceasefire that is still going on today, kicking off a reasonable month for markets…

Over the past month, the escalation of the Middle East conflict has dominated global financial markets. On the last day of February, the US, in coordination with Israel, launched a series of airstrikes and military operations targeting Iranian government and military facilities, including the assassination of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s response was swift and included military retaliation across the region against Israel and several other Gulf states. As of the time of writing, there has not been a conclusive resolution to the conflict, and this has resulted in major disruptions to shipping through the Gulf and a sharp increase in energy prices…

Markets contended with several major macroeconomic events over the month. The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump was not authorised to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Powers Act (or IEEPA). In response, Trump complied with the ruling however pivoted to alternative measures, issuing a 10% tariff on all countries based on another statute (Section 122 of the Trades Act of 1974). Last week, Trade Secretary, Scott Bessent announced that the 10% tariff will be increased to 15% imminently.

Tariff tribulations were overshadowed at the end of the month when the US and Israel launched a series of airstrikes and military operations in Iran…

Global equities were slightly down in January due to negative returns in the US markets which fell-1.3% in sterling terms. With the US making up 70% of the global benchmark it has a significant impact on the performance of the overall global index. However, once you take out the US, the story was much more positive in every other equity market. Our home market had a strong month posting positive returns of +3.1% but the standouts were Asia and emerging markets…

Equity markets finished the year on a strong note with most regions delivering double digit returns over the period and hitting all-time highs. This was achieved despite several potential headwinds including Trump’s tariff hikes, growing concerns about technology valuations and recent concerns of a potential Chinese slowdown.
Looking at December, the UK was a strong performer, returning +2.3%, bolstered by strong corporate earnings and the hope for further rate cuts, and finished the quarter as the best performing equity market…

Markets sold off in November. Generally, it was driven by concerns over valuations in technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI). This had a marked negative effect on the US equity market, and because the US represents a large part of global index (over 70% of MSCI World is in the US) it had an impact on the broader global equity index too…