In March 2025, global financial markets were unstable due to economic uncertainty and changing tariff policies, which made investors anxious. The Trump administration’s bold trade plans, especially new tariffs introduced in April, caused significant market changes. This summary looks back at what happened in March and how things have developed by April 2025, including the latest market responses and economic effects.
Equity markets in March were rattled by the looming threat of the Trump administration’s tariff plans, which crystallized in April. The announcement of these measures in early March, coupled with President Trump’s refusal to dismiss recession risks, triggered a sharp sell-off, illustrated by the Nasdaq’s 4% single-day plunge—the steepest since September 2022. By month end, all regional equity markets had posted losses, with the U.S. declining over 8.0%, dragging the global equity index down 7.1%. The UK, relatively insulated from tariff threats, limited its drop to 2.4% at the end of March, while emerging markets cushioned their fall at 2.3%, thanks to a weakening US dollar.
In April the tariff rollout has deepened the equity decline. The S&P 500 fell over 17% from its February peak with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq suffering even steeper declines. Markets have continued to gyrate, with $5 trillion wiped off U.S. equity valuations since the tariff announcement, reflecting fears of a global trade war and recessionary concerns. Investors are hopeful of a negotiation-driven reprieve but are grappling with the potential for sustained trade barriers.
In March, bond markets emerged as a counterweight to equity turmoil. The expectation that tariffs might slow global growth fuelled speculation of central bank rate cuts, overshadowing inflationary concerns for the time being. This flight to safety reflected a market focused on growth risks rather than price pressures, offering a reprieve from equity losses.
After the end of-March, however, the bond market narrative has evolved and remains fluid, as inflationary fears tied to tariffs are creeping back. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Jerome Powell, has hinted at a delicate balancing act.Higher inflation from trade disruptions could limit rate-cut prospects, challenging bonds’ safe-haven status. Investors are now reassessing whether bonds can sustain their appeal if stagflation (lower growth and higher inflation) risks materialise, adding a layer of complexity absent in March.
Gold shone brightly in March, climbing 6.7% to breach $3,100 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainty. Central banks and institutions continued their trend of purchasing which has been the case for the last couple of years. Broader commodities rose a modest 1.2%, with natural gas surging, oil stagnating, and metals facing trade-related headwinds.
At the start of April, the tariff escalation has intensified safe-haven inflows, while oil remains volatile amid sanctions and trade fears. This widening divergence—gold soaring as equities and other commodities falter—highlights a market increasingly polarised by Trump’s trade war and their potential implications.
The one thing with the Trump administration is that it is hard to predict, and narratives can change quite quickly. Right now, the market is in a “shoot first, ask questions later” mode. Inflation and growth fears are certainly front and central but these concerns could just as easily filter away
With such as uncertain backdrop we think diversification remains critical and a calm approach is essential. The tariff shock has morphed March’s uncertainty into a tangible economic challenge, testing investors’ resilience as they navigate this landscape, but we have had many instances like this in the past. We continue to believe that good investment opportunities will present themselves.
11th April 2025
Cappuccino Commentary
A relaxed read on the issues of the day
In March 2025, global financial markets were unstable due to economic uncertainty and changing tariff policies, which made investors anxious. The Trump administration’s bold trade plans, especially new tariffs introduced in April, caused significant market changes. This summary looks back at what happened in March and how things have developed by April 2025, including the latest market responses and economic effects.
Equity markets in March were rattled by the looming threat of the Trump administration’s tariff plans, which crystallized in April. The announcement of these measures in early March, coupled with President Trump’s refusal to dismiss recession risks, triggered a sharp sell-off, illustrated by the Nasdaq’s 4% single-day plunge—the steepest since September 2022. By month end, all regional equity markets had posted losses, with the U.S. declining over 8.0%, dragging the global equity index down 7.1%. The UK, relatively insulated from tariff threats, limited its drop to 2.4% at the end of March, while emerging markets cushioned their fall at 2.3%, thanks to a weakening US dollar.
In April the tariff rollout has deepened the equity decline. The S&P 500 fell over 17% from its February peak with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq suffering even steeper declines. Markets have continued to gyrate, with $5 trillion wiped off U.S. equity valuations since the tariff announcement, reflecting fears of a global trade war and recessionary concerns. Investors are hopeful of a negotiation-driven reprieve but are grappling with the potential for sustained trade barriers.
In March, bond markets emerged as a counterweight to equity turmoil. The expectation that tariffs might slow global growth fuelled speculation of central bank rate cuts, overshadowing inflationary concerns for the time being. This flight to safety reflected a market focused on growth risks rather than price pressures, offering a reprieve from equity losses.
After the end of-March, however, the bond market narrative has evolved and remains fluid, as inflationary fears tied to tariffs are creeping back. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Jerome Powell, has hinted at a delicate balancing act.Higher inflation from trade disruptions could limit rate-cut prospects, challenging bonds’ safe-haven status. Investors are now reassessing whether bonds can sustain their appeal if stagflation (lower growth and higher inflation) risks materialise, adding a layer of complexity absent in March.
Gold shone brightly in March, climbing 6.7% to breach $3,100 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainty. Central banks and institutions continued their trend of purchasing which has been the case for the last couple of years. Broader commodities rose a modest 1.2%, with natural gas surging, oil stagnating, and metals facing trade-related headwinds.
At the start of April, the tariff escalation has intensified safe-haven inflows, while oil remains volatile amid sanctions and trade fears. This widening divergence—gold soaring as equities and other commodities falter—highlights a market increasingly polarised by Trump’s trade war and their potential implications.
The one thing with the Trump administration is that it is hard to predict, and narratives can change quite quickly. Right now, the market is in a “shoot first, ask questions later” mode. Inflation and growth fears are certainly front and central but these concerns could just as easily filter away
With such as uncertain backdrop we think diversification remains critical and a calm approach is essential. The tariff shock has morphed March’s uncertainty into a tangible economic challenge, testing investors’ resilience as they navigate this landscape, but we have had many instances like this in the past. We continue to believe that good investment opportunities will present themselves.
This information is intended for professional financial advisers only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such.