The world’s economic pulse in November could be summed up in one phrase: risk is back in vogue. After a tumultuous year marked by uncertainty and caution, investors seemed ready to embrace risk across most asset classes, resulting in a month of strong performances, albeit with some notable exceptions.
Leading the pack, the U.S. equity market surged ahead, delivering a stellar 6.2% return (in sterling terms) for the month. This rally came on the heels of a decisive political shift as Donald Trump and the Republicans secured commanding victories in the U.S. elections. Far from the anticipated messy or drawn-out results, the election outcome was clear and immediate, setting the stage for a market-friendly outlook. Investors interpreted Trump’s proposed policies as a signal of economic stimulation through fiscal stimulus, tax reforms, and deregulation, all of which were welcomed enthusiastically by various market sectors.
The U.S. equity market’s standout performance also drove the broader global benchmark to post a 5.3% return for November. Notably, the technology-driven gains that had defined much of the year’s rally began to broaden. The “Magnificent 7” mega-cap tech giants, which had been the sole engine of market returns earlier in the year, shared the stage with other sectors such as financials and small-cap stocks. These shifts suggest that Trump’s fiscal and deregulation plans may breathe life into previously lagging areas of the market, particularly small-cap companies that stand to benefit directly from tax cuts and infrastructure spending.
However, not all regions joined the party. Emerging markets and Europe struggled, posting negative returns for the month. For emerging markets, the looming spectre of increased U.S.-China trade tensions spooked investors, prompting a sell-off. In Europe, Germany’s soft economic data and political unrest in France weighed on sentiment, leading to a decline in continental European equities.
UK equities managed to deliver a decent 2.5% return, bolstered by a flurry of merger and acquisition activity. In a surprising turn, November marked the first positive net inflow into UK equity markets in over 42 months, breaking a consistent outflow trend that had persisted since mid-2019. While it’s too soon to declare a full reversal of fortune, this shift hints at a potential change in investor sentiment toward the UK market.
As central banks across the globe cut interest rates to counter slowing growth and inflation, fixed-income assets saw solid positive returns. Both credit and government debt benefited from the favourable monetary environment, giving investors an alternative avenue for gains. However, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. Market watchers are cautious about the potential inflationary effects of Trump’s trade policies, particularly the reintroduction of tariffs, which could curb central banks’ ability to continue rate cuts. For now, the fixed-income rally holds firm, but the road ahead may be less smooth.
Infrastructure investments and commodities added to the risk-on narrative, delivering positive returns in November. Commodities, however, had a notable outlier: gold. After hitting all-time highs at the end of October, gold prices fell 1.7% as the appetite for risk assets drew investors away from safe havens. This decline underscores a broader shift in market sentiment as investors moved from a defensive stance to a more growth-oriented outlook.
As the year approaches its close, November’s strong market performance offers a snapshot of cautious optimism. Yet, risks linger on the horizon. The impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, the political landscape in Europe, and the trajectory of central bank policies will continue to shape global markets.
17th December 2024
Cappuccino Commentary
A relaxed read on the issues of the day
The world’s economic pulse in November could be summed up in one phrase: risk is back in vogue. After a tumultuous year marked by uncertainty and caution, investors seemed ready to embrace risk across most asset classes, resulting in a month of strong performances, albeit with some notable exceptions.
Leading the pack, the U.S. equity market surged ahead, delivering a stellar 6.2% return (in sterling terms) for the month. This rally came on the heels of a decisive political shift as Donald Trump and the Republicans secured commanding victories in the U.S. elections. Far from the anticipated messy or drawn-out results, the election outcome was clear and immediate, setting the stage for a market-friendly outlook. Investors interpreted Trump’s proposed policies as a signal of economic stimulation through fiscal stimulus, tax reforms, and deregulation, all of which were welcomed enthusiastically by various market sectors.
The U.S. equity market’s standout performance also drove the broader global benchmark to post a 5.3% return for November. Notably, the technology-driven gains that had defined much of the year’s rally began to broaden. The “Magnificent 7” mega-cap tech giants, which had been the sole engine of market returns earlier in the year, shared the stage with other sectors such as financials and small-cap stocks. These shifts suggest that Trump’s fiscal and deregulation plans may breathe life into previously lagging areas of the market, particularly small-cap companies that stand to benefit directly from tax cuts and infrastructure spending.
However, not all regions joined the party. Emerging markets and Europe struggled, posting negative returns for the month. For emerging markets, the looming spectre of increased U.S.-China trade tensions spooked investors, prompting a sell-off. In Europe, Germany’s soft economic data and political unrest in France weighed on sentiment, leading to a decline in continental European equities.
UK equities managed to deliver a decent 2.5% return, bolstered by a flurry of merger and acquisition activity. In a surprising turn, November marked the first positive net inflow into UK equity markets in over 42 months, breaking a consistent outflow trend that had persisted since mid-2019. While it’s too soon to declare a full reversal of fortune, this shift hints at a potential change in investor sentiment toward the UK market.
As central banks across the globe cut interest rates to counter slowing growth and inflation, fixed-income assets saw solid positive returns. Both credit and government debt benefited from the favourable monetary environment, giving investors an alternative avenue for gains. However, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. Market watchers are cautious about the potential inflationary effects of Trump’s trade policies, particularly the reintroduction of tariffs, which could curb central banks’ ability to continue rate cuts. For now, the fixed-income rally holds firm, but the road ahead may be less smooth.
Infrastructure investments and commodities added to the risk-on narrative, delivering positive returns in November. Commodities, however, had a notable outlier: gold. After hitting all-time highs at the end of October, gold prices fell 1.7% as the appetite for risk assets drew investors away from safe havens. This decline underscores a broader shift in market sentiment as investors moved from a defensive stance to a more growth-oriented outlook.
As the year approaches its close, November’s strong market performance offers a snapshot of cautious optimism. Yet, risks linger on the horizon. The impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, the political landscape in Europe, and the trajectory of central bank policies will continue to shape global markets.
This information is intended for professional financial advisers only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such.