- The minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting hinted that policy makers are ready to lift short-term interest rates “fairly soon”, with the futures markets suggesting the chance of a hike at the next meeting sits at 36%.
- Kraft Heinz, a company backed by Warren Buffet, decided to pull the plug on its $143bn pursuit of Unilever, which would have created the world’s second largest consumer goods group. Sources suggest the potential deal was leaked too early, making it hard to negotiate.
- With strengthening economic data across the Eurozone, investors have again started turning to European stocks as this week saw $1.1bn flows into European equity funds – the largest weekly inflow in over a year.
- On Wednesday 1 March we have the release of the UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), with current expectations standing at 56. PMI is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector – a value above 50 represents sector expansion and below 50 indicating expected contraction – when compared to the previous month.
- On Thursday 2 March we will see US Initial Jobless Claims with current expectations at 240k
A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.
A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.
A score of 1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.
*as at latest realignment 20/2/17
Notice:
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.
