The infoshot to help kick-start your week
Coming up this week:
UK inflation and jobs data – Tuesday & Wednesday
Increases in gas and electric bills, caused by the conflict in Iran and the Ofgem cap increase, are expected to push inflation up to 2.9% when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) release the inflation data for July on Wednesday. The anticipated increase follows the Chief Economist for the Bank of England, Huw Pill’s comments last week that the 0.4% GDP expansion in Q2 reinforces the case for higher borrowing costs to bring inflation down.
The ONS will release the latest UK jobs report tomorrow. It’s widely expected to show slow private sector hiring with employers sticking to a cautious low hire, low fire model.
US retail earnings – Tuesday to Thursday
Some of America’s biggest retailers, including Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target and Walmart, release their Q2 earning reports this week. While high income household spending has been boosted by strong market performance, lower income households have seen their finances curtailed by rising gas prices and inflation. The latest retail reports will give another view on the health of US consumers and how K-shaped the US economy now is.
Last week:
US inflation cools but debt soars
Last week’s CPI release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed annual US inflation cooled to 3.4% taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The odds of a rate hike at the next meeting in September have fallen to 42%.
On Wednesday, the Treasury Department reported that the US budget deficit soared to its highest monthly level in more than five years. July’s shortfall totalled $432.3 billion, with Medicare, social security, interest payments on national debt the largest contributors. Tariff refunds also added $33bn as the cost of rebates continues to add up.
In a busy week for the Treasury Department, they repealed the requirement for US companies to report beneficial ownership information (BOI). US companies will no longer have to report information about individuals who own a 25% stake or have “substantial control” over the business.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the repeal gets rid of “a burdensome reporting requirement for millions of law-abiding business owners without compromising our national security.” Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren said the repeal was a “gift to cartels, criminals and US adversaries” and those who use “shell companies to move millions through our financial system.” The use of shell companies has been pivotal in the AI circular financing deals with data centre operations often set up under shell companies. It has allowed hyperscalers to offload risk and avoid recording the debt on official balance sheets. Expect the repeal to make this process even easier for US big tech.
Better than expected UK GDP growth
UK GDP rose 0.3% in June thanks to calmer energy prices, the World Cup and consistent sunshine. The better-than-expected growth has put us on course for the highest G7 growth in the first half of 2026. Alcohol makers, television producers and advertising firms also reported a World Cup boost.
However, Green Party thinktank Verdant updated their assessment of the heatwaves’ impact on the UK economy, estimating that the total cost of lost economic output was £4.4bn for June and July. If the intensity and frequency of heatwaves continue their current trajectory, Verdant suggest the annual economic cost could rise to more than £25bn by 2030.
Hong Kong tech index to nearly double
Hong Kong’s main tech index is planning to add 20 more companies taking the number of constituents to 50. The index is overhauling its tech themes to add AI and robotics as it tries to keep its representation up with the evolving tech landscape. Quantum computing, aerospace and satellite technology will also be added in the growing list of sub-themes. The changes are expected to come into place from the end of September. In the first half of 2026, IPOs listed in Hong Kong raised $21.5bn, more than double the same period in 2025.
Notice:
For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.
