Investing during volatile conditions and conflicts
When investing, the primary focus should remain on company fundamentals, economic conditions and the narratives shaping markets. Periods of conflict should not change this principle. However, uncertainty naturally increases during political crises and the news cycle can amplify short-term reactions in markets.
Markets tend to be sensitive to uncertainty, which can prompt rises in behaviours like profit taking, short-term risk reduction or increased demand for perceived safe havens. This activity can impact short-term equity valuations.
History suggests that markets often stabilise once the initial uncertainty begins to fade. This pattern was visible following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and during earlier conflicts such as the Iraq and Gulf wars. While initial reactions were often significant, markets typically recovered as the situation became clearer.
Geopolitical volatility does not necessarily change the long-term investment case for diversified portfolios. Investors who maintain exposure to a range of assets aligned to compelling economic themes are typically better positioned to recover from periods of disruption.
This does not mean conflicts or volatility should be ignored. However, investors should avoid becoming overly influenced by the volume of information surrounding these events.
The road ahead and defensive strategies
Given that volatility has become a persistent feature, it’s important to consider portfolio options that can help manage downside risk. Regional and asset diversification played an important role over the last year as some investors found compelling opportunities in domestically orientated small- and mid-cap indices outside the US. This reflects that parts of the US market remain expensive and present a high level of concentration risk, providing little protection from market falls.
Another approach is to employ strategies designed to moderate short-term market swings. Smoothed funds are one example; these products typically hold back a portion of profits during strong markets, which can then be used to support returns during market downturns. While they do not eliminate investment risk, the smoothing mechanism can help reduce the scale of short-term fluctuations in portfolio values.
Several uncertainties remain around Iran and the broader geopolitical environment. Even if the conflict resolves quickly, the economic and market consequences may take time to fully materialise. Investment strategies that recognise the potential for continued volatility are better positioned to navigate both the current situation and future market disruptions.
1] Oil prices soar past $100 a barrel as war escalates in Iran
[2] Investors reverse bets on central bank rate cuts as oil crisis deepens
18th March 2026
What the situation in Iran tells us about navigating market volatility
The ongoing situation in Iran has created a new wave of uncertainty for investors. One notable feature of the conflict has been the sheer volume of information being released, which has the potential to shift markets in the short term. History suggests that trying to time markets during periods of volatility is rarely a reliable strategy.
In many ways, the situation in Iran represents a concentrated example of the current trading landscape in which volatility should be anticipated. We’ve seen increasingly frequent instances of instability over the past couple of years, largely driven by geopolitical friction.
Investing during conflicts and instability ultimately requires a well-considered strategy. Looking at both current developments and past events suggests that investors who focus on the broader economic and market picture are generally better positioned to navigate volatility.
The question marks around Iran
There are several aspects of the current conflict that differ from previous military action involving Iran. Rhetoric from the Trump administration has implied the possibility of an extended engagement. The situation remains highly uncertain, but market reaction so far has seen most major indices experience short-term declines.
The impact on oil is most closely watched, with the price of Brent crude moving above $100 for the first time in four years.[1] Iran has been targeting energy and civilian infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states and limited passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global supply route.
Disruption in this area has clear implications for energy prices and inflation. Markets have already reduced expectations for future interest rate cuts.[2] To date, economies most dependent on energy imports have experienced the greatest market stress.
It’s worth noting that we’re yet to reach the market declines seen during previous periods of volatility, including the Liberation Day sell-off. However, even if the current conflict is resolved relatively quickly, several potentially disruptive elements remain, including US tariff policy and concerns around valuations in parts of the technology sector. Investment strategies need to take account of these ongoing risks.
Investing during volatile conditions and conflicts
When investing, the primary focus should remain on company fundamentals, economic conditions and the narratives shaping markets. Periods of conflict should not change this principle. However, uncertainty naturally increases during political crises and the news cycle can amplify short-term reactions in markets.
Markets tend to be sensitive to uncertainty, which can prompt rises in behaviours like profit taking, short-term risk reduction or increased demand for perceived safe havens. This activity can impact short-term equity valuations.
History suggests that markets often stabilise once the initial uncertainty begins to fade. This pattern was visible following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and during earlier conflicts such as the Iraq and Gulf wars. While initial reactions were often significant, markets typically recovered as the situation became clearer.
Geopolitical volatility does not necessarily change the long-term investment case for diversified portfolios. Investors who maintain exposure to a range of assets aligned to compelling economic themes are typically better positioned to recover from periods of disruption.
This does not mean conflicts or volatility should be ignored. However, investors should avoid becoming overly influenced by the volume of information surrounding these events.
The road ahead and defensive strategies
Given that volatility has become a persistent feature, it’s important to consider portfolio options that can help manage downside risk. Regional and asset diversification played an important role over the last year as some investors found compelling opportunities in domestically orientated small- and mid-cap indices outside the US. This reflects that parts of the US market remain expensive and present a high level of concentration risk, providing little protection from market falls.
Another approach is to employ strategies designed to moderate short-term market swings. Smoothed funds are one example; these products typically hold back a portion of profits during strong markets, which can then be used to support returns during market downturns. While they do not eliminate investment risk, the smoothing mechanism can help reduce the scale of short-term fluctuations in portfolio values.
Several uncertainties remain around Iran and the broader geopolitical environment. Even if the conflict resolves quickly, the economic and market consequences may take time to fully materialise. Investment strategies that recognise the potential for continued volatility are better positioned to navigate both the current situation and future market disruptions.
1] Oil prices soar past $100 a barrel as war escalates in Iran
[2] Investors reverse bets on central bank rate cuts as oil crisis deepens
This article is intended for regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only. Copia does not provide financial advice. This information is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such.