The infoshot to help kick-start your week
UK unemployment is at a 5-year high
UK unemployment reached its highest since the pandemic at 5.2% in the final quarter of last year, above the 5.1% economists were forecasting. The jobless rate among 18–24 year olds continued to rise, climbing to 14% as young people bear the brunt of the hiring slowdown. The market is now pricing in two UK interest rate cuts this year to 3.25%.
UK Inflation
UK Inflation did drop to 3% in January, down from 3.4% in December, driven by food, fuel and airfares. However, evidence of lingering price pressures may give strength to the three most hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee to keep rates on hold. Services inflation, fell to 4.4%, above economists’ expectations of 4.3% and notably higher than the BOE’s predicted 4.1%, and core inflation climbed to 3.1%, higher than the bank’s 2.9% forecast albeit the lowest level since 2021.
Trump’s Global Tariffs Struck Down by US Supreme Court
The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, saying he exceeded his authority by invoking a federal emergency-powers law to impose them. The justices didn’t address the extent to which importers are entitled to refunds, leaving it to a lower court to sort out those issues, with potential refunds totalling as much as $170 billion.
On Friday Trump responded with a 10% levy on all goods coming into the US. However, on Saturday this increased to 15%, the maximum amount allowed under a never-used trade law. This law allows these new tariffs to stay in place for 5 months before the administration must seek congressional approval.
Japan, US trade deal
Japan plans to invest up to $36 billion in US oil, gas and critical mineral projects, the first tranche of its $550 billion commitment under the trade agreement it struck with President Donald Trump. The investments include a natural gas facility in Ohio, a deepwater crude export facility in the Gulf of Mexico, and a synthetic industrial diamond manufacturing facility, which are designed to build resilient supply chains and promote mutual benefits between Japan and the US.
Coming Up:
- Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jan), Wednesday 25 February 2026
- US Initial Jobless Claims, Thursday 26 February 2026
- US PPI (MoM) (Jan), Friday 27 February 2026
Notice:
For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such.
The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.
