Blog

12th January 2026

Weekly Espresso

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

 

Executives gather in the White House to discuss the fate of Venezuelan oil 

On Wednesday, the Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that the US will control Venezuelan oil sales “indefinitely”. The next day, President Trump held a roundtable press conference with more than a dozen senior oil executives. While they acknowledged that Venezuela represented an enticing opportunity, the consensus was that significant changes would be needed before they can start investing. Exxon’s Chief Executive, Darren Woods, went as far as to label Venezuela “uninvestable” in its current state.

After a surge on Monday, the reality of the investment and time required to harness Venezuelan resources dawned on oil share prices. Most major firms mainly fell back to just above where they started the week. The price of oil fluctuated between $56 and $59. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump wants to use Venezuelan oil to bring the price down to $50 a barrel and cut energy costs for US consumers.

Trump reiterated his desire to take “ownership” of Greenland, saying on Friday, “We’re going to be doing something with Greenland, either the nice way or the more difficult way.” Trump claims the US needs Greenland from a national security standpoint. Greenland is also rich in natural resources including iron ore, gold and oil, and contains an estimated 1.5 million tons of rare earth reserves. Up to now, no rare earth mining has taken place on the island but the deposits in the Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez mining sites are expected to be among the largest in the world. Trump is also weighing up whether to take action in Iran in response to the Iranian state’s crackdown on protesters. In an interview with the New York Times on Thursday, Trump said, “I don’t need international law” and that his own “morality” and “mind” are the “only thing[s] that can stop [him]”.

Final 2025 US job numbers released 

The latest US job numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated a less than expected 50,000 non-farm jobs were added in December. That addition takes the 2025 total to roughly 584,000 new jobs. That’s a significant fall from the 2 million jobs added in 2024 and 2.6 million added in 2023. Last year’s gains were the lowest since Covid. Tariffs, the immigration crackdown and large cuts to government spending all had a significant impact on the US labour market in 2025. 

Attacks on Powell and the Fed dramatically escalated

Yesterday, the Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve over renovations to the Fed’s office buildings in Washington DC. Powell and the Fed are being accused of mishandling the renovation and lying to Congress about its scope. In response, Powell said he is being threatened with criminal charges because the Fed had been setting interest rates “based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.”

The news unsettled markets this morning, sending all US futures down between 0.65% to 1%. The dollar also fell around 0.35% compared to other major currencies. 

Chinese and Japanese markets off to a strong start despite tensions 

Tensions between China and Japan increased last week. On Friday, the CCP’s flagship newspaper, the People’s Daily, used its editorial column to criticise Sanae Takaichu’s government, claiming Japan’s “New Militarism will lead Japan back into the abyss”. There were also reports of Japanese shipments bound for China being delayed. Despite this, Chinese and Japanese markets have started the year strongly with tech companies in both countries leading an early 2026 rally.

In more rare earth news, a Japanese research vessel has set sail today for the remote Pacific island of Minami-Tori-shima to dig up resources buried 6,000 metres below sea level. The Japanese will be hoping that the deep-sea excavation can help curb their dependence on China for rare earths.

Coming Up:

  • US New Home Sales, Tuesday 13 January 2026
  • Supreme Court Decision on Tariffs, Wednesday 14 January 2026
  • UK GDP Data, Thursday 14 January 2026

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such. The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

Risk Barometer

+ 0.72

as at latest realignment 02/01/2026

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