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22nd September 2025

Weekly Espresso

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

 

Fed finally cuts rates

The US Federal Reserve committee voted to cut interest rates for the first time in nine months. The committee voted 11-1 in favour of the 0.25% cut, with Trump appointee, Stephen Miran, the only member calling for a larger 0.5% reduction.

Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powel, said after that “the balance of risks has shifted” away from inflation to concerns about the labour market. Though it remains to be seen what will happen next, with Powell stating “we’re not on a pre-set path” towards further cuts.

With a rate cut having been hoped for by investors, markets reacted positively to the confirmation, sending US equity indexes to record highs during the week. Conversely – as major investors try to hedge their desire to invest in top US firms against worries about the US jobs market, inflation, increasing government debt and the policies of the Trump administration – the US dollar is now down 10% in 2025. The US currency is having its worst year in more than two decades, while safe haven alternative gold continues to surge – reaching a record high of $3,756 per ounce this morning.

“Tech Prosperity Deal” signed during state visit

During Trump’s second UK state visit, the UK government announced it had secured £150bn of US investment which it hopes will create 7,600 jobs.

Trump and Starmer signed the “Tech Prosperity Deal” on Wednesday. £90bn of the investment will come US private equity firm Blackstone, who announced in June that they would spend £370 in Europe over the next ten years. Microsoft has pledged to spend £22bn and Google will invest £5bn expanding its existing data centre in Hertfordshire. Real Estate investment trust Prologis will invest £3.9bn into life sciences and advanced manufacturing hubs in Cambridge and Daventry, while Peter Thiel’s data giant Palantir is set to invest £1.5bn on UK defence innovation.

Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle said the news reflected a growing confidence in the UK and that “These record-breaking investments will create thousands of high-quality jobs across the UK.” However, former Liberal Democrat leader, and ex Facebook Global Affairs President, Nick Clegg, called the investment “crumbs from the Silicon Valley table” and said the deal will not help solve the problem of UK tech firms ending up in the US when they need investment, concluding “not only do we import all their technology, we export all our good people and good ideas as well.”

TikTok deal close to being sealed

Reports last week suggest Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to sign a deal that will give US control over the TikTok algorithm. The deal would enable to TikTok to continue operating in the US. TikTok’s 170mn US users spend significantly more time on the app than over social media platforms, with the daily average for 2025 sitting at 59 minutes a day.

According to the White House, the deal will see Americans take up six of the seven board seats overseeing the app’s US operations. Oracle, chaired by Trump ally and the world’s second richest man, Larry Ellison, will look after data and privacy. On Sunday, Trump said that Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan Murchoch, will also be involved in the group, bringing media conglomerate Fox corporation into the mix.

Coming Up:

  • Fed Chair speaks, Tuesday 23 September at 17:35pm
  • US GDP Q2, Thursday 25 September 2025 at 13:30pm
  • US Core PCE index, Friday 26 September 2025 at 13:30pm

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such. The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class.  This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

Risk Barometer

+ 0.12

as at latest realignment 01/09/2025

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