Blog

7th July 2025

Weekly Espresso

The infoshot to help kick-start your week

 

Employment at US companies fell in June for the first time in more than 2 years

Private sector payrolls decreased 33,000 last month after a downwardly revised 29,000 gains in May, according to ADP research data released on Wednesday.

 

The US took fresh stops to restrict the trade of Iranian oil

The Treasury Department imposed new sanctions targeting a network of businesses accused of buying and transporting billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil. Among those sanctioned are several companies that allegedly sell oil from Iran to Western buyers by falsely declaring their shipments as Iraqi, as well as their owner, an Iraqi British national named Salim Ahmed Said. The state department penalised six companies, including four vessels aiding Iran’s oil exports.

 

Big Beautiful Bill

  • The Senate has passed a multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package that makes deeper cuts to safety-net programs, speeds up the elimination of clean energy tax breaks, and benefits businesses with permanent tax breaks.
  • The bill includes various provisions, such as a higher limit on the state and local tax deduction, exemptions from taxes on tip income, and cuts to Medicaid spending, as well as new funding for defence and immigration enforcement.
  • Other provisions include changes to tax breaks for electric vehicles, auto loans interest payments, and investment credit for semiconductor manufacturers, as well as changes to the child tax credit, consumer protection, and food aid programs
  • The republican Bill could push American’s national debt beyond $40 trillion.
 

Trump threatens Japan with tariffs up to 35% as deadline looms but Trades Agreement with Vietnam

 
  • Like many other countries, most of Japan’s exports to the US currently face a 10% levy. There is also a 25% import tax on Japanese vehicles and parts, while steel and aluminium are subject to a 50% tariff.
  • President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Japan, citing the country’s unwillingness to accept US rice exports, despite Japan’s massive rice shortage.
  • White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the administration aims to finalize deals with trading partners after the July 4 holiday, with talks between the US and Japan expected to continue despite Trump’s threat.
  • Japan is hesitant to make concessions on its agricultural sector, particularly on rice imports, ahead of an upper house election on July 20, and has been seeking relief from Trump’s 25% auto tariffs.
  • President Trump said on Wednesday that the US will charge 20% tariffs on imports from Vietnam under a new trade deal reached during last-minute negotiations. Products sent from Vietnam to the US had faced a 46% levy, which was set to go into effect next week as part of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs announced in April.

Coming Up:

  • “Liberation day” tariff deadline, Wednesday 9 July 2025 at 14:00pm
  • 10-year US bond auction, Wednesday 9 July at 18:00pm
  • UK GDP data, Friday 11 July at 9:00am

Notice:

For regulated financial advisers and investment professionals only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such. The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class.  This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.

Risk Barometer

-0.49

as at latest realignment 02/07/2025

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