The infoshot to help kick-start your week
Last Week
- A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has taken effect, ending 13 months of conflict. Brokered by the US and France, the deal aims to cease hostilities in Lebanon and secure Israel from Hezbollah and other militant threats. Under the agreement, Hezbollah has 60 days to withdraw its armed presence from southern Lebanon, while Israeli forces will simultaneously pull back from the area. The ceasefire is intended to be permanent, with both Israel and Lebanon committed to promoting conditions for a comprehensive peace. Lebanon’s government must prevent Hezbollah and other armed groups from launching operations against Israel, while Israel has pledged not to conduct offensive military actions in Lebanon. The ceasefire is grounded in UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war and called for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from areas south of the Litani River. Israel claims this was never fully implemented, enabling Hezbollah to build military infrastructure, while Lebanon accuses Israel of airspace violations. Although a significant step, the ceasefire is viewed as fragile, offering a respite rather than a definitive solution to the region’s complex challenges. Both sides face pressure to uphold their commitments, with the international community closely monitoring for compliance and long-term stability.
- Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats underscore his seriousness about reshaping global trade. Targeting not just China but also Mexico and Canada, he’s signaling a willingness to dismantle the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) he signed in his first term. These tariffs are less about trade policy and more about leveraging economic pressure to influence issues like migration and drug control, effectively using tariffs as a diplomatic weapon. Trump’s move raises questions about the future of free trade deals, as imposing tariffs on allies could undermine trust. G20 leaders may resist, waiting out the domestic fallout from increased costs on US consumers. History shows tariffs can backfire: during Trump’s first term, a 50% tariff on foreign washing machines raised prices by 12%. Despite potential economic harm, political appetite for tariffs remains strong. Even President Biden maintained Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump’s strategy seeks to shift the global economic balance, but pushing too hard could isolate the US from key allies, complicating international diplomacy.
- Over a million mortgages issued in the past three years will see homeowners repaying into retirement, with two in five new mortgages extending past pension age. This trend, driven by higher interest rates, allows buyers to spread costs over longer terms but ultimately makes loans more expensive. Experts warn this poses significant challenges for retirement planning, as inadequate pension savings may be used to clear remaining mortgage debt. The average age of first-time buyers has risen to nearly 34, heightening concerns about affordability in retirement. While only 3% of current mortgage holders pay beyond age 65, the growing popularity of ultra-long mortgages suggests this figure could rise. Some homeowners may shorten terms if their financial situation improves, but others might need to work longer or downsize. Lenders impose age limits and require proof of post-retirement affordability. With many still renting in their 50s and 60s, the affordability crisis underscores broader financial strain in the housing market.
Market Pulse
Coming Up
- UK BoE Gov Bailey speech, Wednesday 4th December 2024 at 9:00am
- UK PMI data, Wednesday 4th December 2024 at 9:30am
- US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate, Friday 6th December 2024 at 1:30pm
Notice:
For professional advisers only, Copia does not provide financial advice, and the contents of this document should not be taken as such. The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.Open document settingsOpen publish panel
